Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Dollar paired currencies are weird

Unfortunately my USD/JPY trade did not pan out and I was stopped out with a big spike today for a 90 pip loss per lot. I'm not too upset but it never feels good when you lose on a trade :) I think this pair could still go up but it was just unfortunate that there was such a huge spike today to stop me out.

USD/CHF is developing a similar type of trade as the USD/JPY. There was a 20 day high on the 14th of this month and now we've seen a couple days of retracement with a new 2 day low. Once again, if I can see the dollar break its 20 day high I will go long on this pair. However with the weak US economic data coming out, I'm not sure if there will be enough juice to push the dollar too much higher so it does have me somewhat skeptical. Technically it looks good but fundamentally I'm still not 100% confident in the dollar.

My AUD/CAD trade is finally moving. I originally got triggered (barely) on the short order and the price has reversed and is rallying right now. I got stopped out of my short trade and entered into my long trade. I am currently down 53 pips on the trade which includes the loss I took from the short trade. Like I said, I wasn't really worried if it went up just as long as it keeps going. This was a breakout trade after 7 days of tight consolidation so I'm hoping the market continues to rally. My target now is at 8600 and my stop is at 8387.

Once again we saw little movement in the EUR/USD but what else is new? After gaining some strength with the weak ZEW numbers, the dollar returned back to its EU session high only to finish out the day right near the middle of the EU range. So once again, there were no Alba trades and I have a feeling Alba trades will be scarce until some solid fundamentals come in from either currency.

Interest rate statements come out from the Fed tomorrow. We may see a spike during this candle but unless there is a surprise, I think the market has already priced in the fact that the Fed is going to hold rates the same again. So I'm not expecting much, but it's still an important thing to watch for in the Forex.

So I'm slightly down right now but I'm feeling ok because I'm putting myself in situations where the probabilities are in my favor. As long as I continue to play my cards right I know I'll be ok. It's just like poker. Play your game because even if you have a bad beat, you did all you could to give yourself to best chances to win. That's really the best you can do!

Happy trading everyone!

-BP

1 comment:

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