Friday, August 18, 2006

Start your weekend early with "Boring Friday"

This entry will be shorter than normal. Why? Well today was about as boring as having to actually do "real" work.

Let's see, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence report came out today at a lower than expected number at 78.7. Even with the low number, the Euro failed to make any new gains against the dollar. My theme is still the same as it was yesterday. From what I've read, it seems that the Euro will have a hard time gaining more ground on the dollar because of all the existing long positions in the market. 2700-2900 seems to be the buy/take profit levels. My gut tells me that the dollar won't be able to make it lower than 2700 and if it does, I seriously doubt it will go any lower than 2500. With the dollar sentiment getting weaker, I think that when these levels are hit, traders will add or go long to get in at a good price. I read that less than 20% of traders believe the Fed will raise interest rates so I don't see how the dollar will make any strong improvements.

On the other hand, the Euro-zone data isn't looking so hot either so an interest rate increase is still up in the air. This, coupled with the high number of existing long positions leads me to believe that the Euro will have a hard time getting past the 2900 level at this point.

As far as the other pairs I am watching, I don't see any good setups yet. Everything seems to be in range which makes sense to me as there are no clear fundamental trends yet. All my technical analysis shows consolidations at this point. I will not force anything and will wait until I see something worthwhile.

Trading for me today was pretty boring as I stared at my charts waiting for something to happen, but nothing ever did. Not everyday can be exciting and sometimes, boredom is just part of the game. The key is to take it in stride and not to get frustrated when you can't find a trade. Don't ever feel like you "have" to make pips everyday. This will most certainly get you into trouble. I used to struggle with this for a long time even though I heard the warnings of other traders. Sometimes you just have to learn it on your own but if you can learn to be patient now, you'll have a jump start to a successful trading career.

Alba was also uneventful today. You can see from the chart that the Euro stayed within the EU session range and I didn't see any breakouts. According to my rules, there was an Alba signal at the 9:40 candle but if you read my post yesterday I was watching out for the Consumer Confidence report at 9:45 so I did not take the trade. Other than that, there was really nothing too exciting.

Results: +0 pips

Well that's my ramble for today. Hope you all have a great weekend!


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