Wednesday, August 31, 2005

EUR/USD 8.31.05

6:05 pm- 1 Trade won

What a great day today! The GDP was lower than expected and caused the Euro to skyrocket today. Just like in my analysis earlier, I had a feeling a breakout was going to occur. Usually when there is such a narrow pip range during the EU session, and big news comes out, it usually generates large movement. Today, I opted to take the aggressive route and entered at the close of the 10am candle. This was a huge break of the EU session high. My first target was 2280. I came up with that target by taking the high of my entry candle and subracting it from the low of the candle before it. I then divided that number by 2 and got 27. I added 27 to my entry which was at 2253 and that is how I got 2280. My first target was hit and I closed 2 lots. I moved my last lot's stop to the low of that candle with a 2nd target of 2300. My 2nd target was hit, and usually I would've closed my last lot, but it was a significant break of 2300 so I decided to just move my stop to the low of that candle. I kept moving my stop to the low of every candle that made a new high and finally ended up getting stopped out at 2341.

Today's Results: +54 +88 -9(spread) = +133 pips

There was actually a signal that was generated according to my FX10 tweaks. So even if you would've played the conservative route, you still would've made a profit because it hit it's first target.

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! I hope we have a better day today. GDP comes out at 8:30 EDT so I probably won't trade until after the report. The Euro only made a 41 pip range during it's session so I think we'll see a breakout on either side of the hi/lo. If you want to be aggressive, go ahead and enter a trade if a candle CLOSES at least 10 pips past the hi/lo. Otherwise, just wait for the normal signal. I've been doing more testing and just by eyeballing it, it looks like you will be a winner most of the time if you trade the breakout. Just make sure it is a CLOSE past the hi/lo. I'll post throughout the day. Happy trading everyone!

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

EUR/USD 8.30.05

9:00 pm- 1 trade lost

Sorry I couldn't update earlier. My internet has been acting funny. Anyways, I was disappointed today as I thought I had a good trade. At around 8:20 am, I saw 2 consecutive lows and a break of the EU session low. As you can see, things did not go my way. Stop loss was at 2193 and with 3 lots short at 2174 that is -57 pips for the day. Oh well, you can't win them all. I'm happy that I stuck to my trading plan though. Hopefully tomorrow will be better :)

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! The Euro made about a 54 pip range during it's session. Right now its 5 day daily average pip range is 91 which gives it about 37 pips of "juice" left. The Euro is hanging around it's low so we'll either see a continuation of the downtrend with a break of the low or a correction with a bounce. Just always remember to be patient and wait for a good signal. I'll be posting throughout the day. Happy trading everyone!

Monday, August 29, 2005

Day off

I've decided to take today off because of the bank holiday in the UK. Updates will resume as normal starting tomorrow. Have a great day everyone!

Saturday, August 27, 2005

Weekend Analysis

This week hasn't been the prettiest, but it did move according to my charts from last weekend's analysis. Below is a 60 minute chart as of today but with my lines from last week. You can see that when the Euro broke the upper band of the downtrend it continued to move up. Granted, it wasn't a huge move up, but it did move about 100 pips.

This next chart shows the weekly high and low and where the price is at the moment. As you can see, there is no real trend direction. At the moment it looks like the Euro is bouncing off of the weekly high and could head back down towards the weekly low. However, a break in the weekly high could signal more upward movement for the rest of the week. I think the weekly high will be the make or break point for next week.

Results for 8.22.05 - 8.26.05

Another great week even though I only traded 2 days. In total, there were 3 trades and each were winners. This leaves me optimistic because this time is one of the hardest times to trade because of everyone's vacation time. I have a feeling we'll be making more trades in the next month.

Monday= No trades
Tuesday= No trades
Wednesday= +60 pips
Thursday= +33 pips
Friday= No trades

Total for the week= +93 pips

Friday, August 26, 2005

EUR/USD 8/26/05

No Trades

Hello everyone! Sorry it took me so long to update this post. I didn't see any good trades today. Although Greenspan made the Euro move, I didn't see any clear signals. There was a short signal but it didn't happen until around 1pm, which is beyond my trading time. I ended up going to happy hour and getting really drunk which is why I couldn't post yesterday. Actually, I could've posted but you might have had trouble reading it because it would look like this: wWHEfakdo awerl ERl ad =fas. Hope you all had a great trading week!

7:52 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Greenspan is speaking today at 10am EDT. I'm not sure what is going to happen but hopefully it will move the market. Fridays are also one of those tricky days so I'm going to be extra cautious today. The Euro made about a 44 pip range during it's session, which is usually narrow, but within the past few days, that's about normal. The 5 day daily average range is only 82 pips. I expect this to go back up after this week. Hopefully we'll have a good trade today, but I'm positive for the week so I don't want to force anything. Happy trading everyone!

Thursday, August 25, 2005

EUR/USD 8/25/05

5:50 pm- 2 Trades won

On the first trade I kind of fibbed on my rules. There were 2 consecutive down candles but the first one did not touch the 8 WMA. The reason I still entered was because there was a good close below the EU session low (which happened to be my entry candle). I went short 3 lots at 2276 and closed 2 lots at my first target of 2267. My last lot got stopped out at B/E. Looking back, I think I should've closed my last lot after that candle because it was a reversal hammer.

My 2nd trade actually was a REAL signal. You can see 2 consecutive up candles, each with higher highs. AND, the first candle touched the 8 WMA. This was a perfect bounce trade. I entered 3 lots long at 2296. I closed 2 lots at my first target of 2306. My last lot ended getting stopped at 2306 as well.

1st trade= +18 +3 -9(spread)= +12 pips
2nd trade= +20 +10 -9(spread)- +21 pips
Total= +12 +21= +33 pips

If you think about it, that's pretty crappy considering I got 2 trades today. Ahh well, at least it wasn't a loss right? :)

7:50 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Let's hope some of that momentum yesterday rubs off on today :) So far, the setup looks good. There was a fairly narrow pip range during the EU Session (about 41 pips), so a breakout is more or less likely to happen. I don't think it will move as far as my calculated targets, but I do think it will break out one way or the other. If it doesn't then DON'T TRADE! It's too narrow of a range to try to trade a bounce. So today, the key levels will be 2321 and 2280. If the EURO closes beyond those prices I'd say we'd have a trade. As far as news, I don't see anything major so if the Euro doesn't break the hi/lo, I wouldn't be too surprised. Have a good day everyone and happy trading!

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

EUR/USD 8/24/05

6:30 pm- 1 Trade won

Finally we had some movement today! If you know how I trade, then you know that I normally don't like trading the news. In fact, I usually wait about 20-30 minutes after the news until I look for trades. Today was an exception though. The news candle made a perfect entry criteria for my system. You'll notice that there were 2 consecutive green candles, both with higher highs. The first candle also touched the 8 WMA.

If you've read how I calculate my targets, then you'll see that my first target was hit at 2260. I closed 2 lots out, trailed my last lot's stop, and finally got stopped out at 2269.

Result: +40 +29 -9(spread)= +60 pips

Another reason I liked the trade is because the US Durable Goods report dropped lower than forecasts. When something unexpected happens, usually a good move will follow.

7:57 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Ok, we are still at ZERO trades for this week. This week has just been ranging heavily! I'm not going to try and force a trade (even though it's tough) but I will still look for signals. During these slow weeks, remember to be extra patient because the market is very sketchy right now. After this week, things should start to go back to normal, but for now just be very cautious. Here are some trades I see just from glancing at my chart. I'd start looking short if the Euro goes below S1 at 2197 and target 2176. If the Euro breaks the EU session high, I'd look long at 2215 and target 2226. Of course, this doesn't even factor the FX10 criteria, but you get the idea. Happy trading everyone!

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

EUR/USD 8/23/05

8:16 pm- No trades

Although there was a good move today, it did not meet my criteria and I did not enter. If you were to have followed the original FX10 strategy with no tweaks, you would've profited on this trade. If you know how I generate my signals, you'll know that I would've entered but my first candle did not touch the 8 wma. In fact it was far from it. So far this week, I have no trades. It's killing me :)

7:55 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! I'm hoping that we'll have a better day than we did yesterday. The Euro made about a 53 pip move last night so I'm expecting about 48 pips of movement left. The current 5 day daily avg volatility is still 101 pips. Right now I have a slight directional bias towards the upside just because on my 60 minute chart, the price has broken the upper band of the 60 minute downtrend channel. I don't think we'll see any MAJOR movement this week because there aren't alot of news events, so still try to be careful when you trade. This is probably one of the last weeks we'll see crappy movement like this. Come September, everyone will be back from vacations and we should start seeing more movement again. Happy trading everyone!

10 minute chart

60 minute chart

Monday, August 22, 2005

EUR/USD 8/22/05

4:22 pm- No trades

I always like to say that no trades is better than a losing trade. That was today's case as the Euro did not go ANYWHERE! There were no significant closes above the EU Session high and there were no good short signals to trade the bounce. There was a false signal at around 11:40. You can see the 2 consecutive green candles, each with higher highs and a close above the EU Session high. However, MACD did not coincide with the rest of the indicators and saved me from a whipsaw. I hope you all didn't get hurt today. Hopefully we'll have a better day tomorrow. I swear, Mondays are my worst enemy, but it didn't get any money from me today :)

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Hope you all had a great weekend! The Euro made a strange move last night. I'm not really sure the reason for it. Anyways, this caused the Euro to make a 65 pip range during it's session. The average daily volatility of the Euro is 101 pips so I'm expecting about 36 more pips of movement. That is how I calculated the pink lines in my chart. As I speak, the Euro is breaking the EU session high, but it's kind of tough because the high was just set during the last 10 minute candle of the EU session. I'm still not sure what I'm going to do yet. Mondays are always tough days. I might even stay out today as I've been losing alot on this crappy day. Unless I see a good move, I might not trade. This is one thing I have to work on because I LOVE to trade. Today will test my patience and discipline. However, if I do see something, I'll definitely post my thoughts. Happy trading everyone!

Saturday, August 20, 2005

Weekend Analysis

Hello everyone! Hope you all had a better trading week than me :) This was my first negative week in a long time, haha. I hate losing! However, I have alot of faith in my trading plan so I'm still feeling confident.

Ummm...on the message board a looonngg time ago, I specifically said that I KNEW the Euro was going to go down and that I was willing to bet pips on it, haha (I'm sure some of you saw that). At first, it didn't look like it would go my way, but finally, it looks like we're seeing that Euro drop. It's not dropping fast, its more of like a slinky dropping from the top of the stairs :)

Anyways, I've taken OKL's idea and added the weekly high and low on my chart. (although you can't see the high on this chart) I've put it on my 60 minute chart as well as my 10 minute chart. I should've been plotting it a long time ago. The weekly high and low are very strong support and resistance levels, and a break in either one means a strong continuation in the move.

You can see that the 60 minute chart is showing a downtrend, and I think the test for next week will be the weekly low. If the Euro breaks that low, I see it going down for the rest of the week. If it breaks the upper trend channel, I see an upward move for the rest of the week. Wow! It's like rocket science, I swear, haha! But seriously, if the Euro breaks the weekly support, I'm going to be more likely to take short positions.

I don't see too many news events that can make the market move, but Greenspan does speak on Friday so that might be interesting.

I am in the process of changing the layout of the blog so please bear with me as it will be under construction for at least the next few days. Have a great weekend everyone!

Friday, August 19, 2005

Chart Setup

I've gotten alot of questions on how I setup my charts and what time frames I use, so just to clarify everything, this is a picture of what my screen looks like when I trade.

The first chart on the left is a 5 minute Euro chart. I like looking at the quick movements while I'm in a trade. It gives me good indications of when to get out.

The 2nd chart is a 10 minute cable chart. I like to see how the cable is moving in relation to the Euro. If the Euro is going up but the cable is going down, I become very cautious and take trades more carefully.

The 3rd chart is my main chart. This is where I plot all my lines, and it is also the chart I trade off of. This is the 10 minute Euro chart.

The last chart is a 60 minute Euro chart. I usually do a weekend assessment on the Euro and I like to look at the big picture when I do it because it keeps me in perspective. I usually just like to glance at this chart before I enter a trade, just to make sure I'm not doing something stupid like entering long right below a major resistance level.

And that's basically my tools for trading. As much as possible, I like to keep it simple. Remember KISS. Keep it simple stupid! It's the best advice ever!

FX10 Results 8.15.05 - 8.19.05

Here are this weeks results:

Monday: -48
Tuesday: No trade
Wednesday: No trade
Thursday: +36
Friday: Missed trade

Result: -12 pips

Yea this week was crappy, but if I would've been able to enter today's trade, I would've finished slightly positive. Oh well, you can win them all. Overall, I'm still positive for August which is good considering this is the worst month of the year to trade :)

EUR/USD 8/19/05

6:50 pm- 1 Trade missed

I missed a pretty good trade today. There was a classic signal at 9:10 am, but unfortunately I was not able to take it because I was not at my computer. If I did enter, I would've entered at the close of the 9:10 candle with 3 lots short at 2161. My first target would've been 2153 and my initial stop would've been 2177. My first target would've gotten hit and I would've closed 2 lots. My last lot I would've left open and just moved it's stop to 2171. Since the 10:20 candle made a new low, I would've moved my stop to the high of that candle at 2152. Unfortunately, that's where I would've gotten stopped out as the very next candle retraced to 2152. My total would've been +16 +9 -9(spread)= +16 pips

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Hopefully we get some movement like we did yesterday. The Euro made about a 69 pip range last night, so I'm not expecting too much movement, but hopefully we can still catch something.

I'm trying something different with my calculated targets today. Up until now, I've been taking the pip range of the Euro from the EU session and subtracting it from 111 (the average pip range of the Euro in 2004). However, we all know that market conditions constantly change. I found a site that gives the average daily pip range of all the currency pairs for the past day, 5 days, 10 days, and 20 days. From now on I'm going to take the pip range of the Euro during the EU session and subtract it from the past 5 day, daily average range. That way I my target is more current with the market conditions. You can check out the site at:

As far as which indicators I use, let me just post it here to clarify for everyone:

-5WMA applied to close
-8WMA applied to open
-Stochastic (5,3,3)
-RSI (14)
-MACD (12,26,9) Lines and Histogram

Hope this clears things up.

As for today, the Euro is hanging around its high from the EU session. I'd wait for a clear break of the EU session high or a bounce. What qualifies a bounce? A good FX10 signal of course:) Just be sure to be patient and wait for a GOOD signal.

I'll be posting throughout the day on the message board. Have a great trading day everyone!

Thursday, August 18, 2005

EUR/USD 8/18/05

6:30 pm- 1 Trade won

Finally we have a trade! Once the Euro broke the low of the EU session, I had a good feeling we would see a down trend for the US session. I played it conservative and waited for a break below 2200. I entered short on 3 lots at 2199. My first target was S1 (see chart from this morning). I closed 2 lots at 2190, and moved my last lot's stop to 2200. My next target was my calculated target from this morning which was at 2172. Once it broke it, I moved my stop to 2172 and that's where I got stopped out.

Results: +18 +27 -9(spread)= +36 pips

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! HOPEFULLY, we can find a trade today. I wish I could've gotten some of the move earlier. The Euro CPI report pushed the price down to almost 2200. It probably moved now because it was confirmation from the US CPI report. Thats just my guess as to why it didn't move like this when the US CPI came out.

Anyways, here is today's chart. Euro made about a 75 pip range during its session so I wouldn't expect too much movement. However, with this much range, I'm more prone to trade a bounce if it happens. I usually only like trading breaks of the hi/lo of the EU session, but with bigger moves, sometimes a bounce can be just as effective. I've outlined areas that I might possible enter if the price moves in those directions. I'll try to keep posting on the message board throughout the day. Happy trading everyone!

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

EUR/USD 8/17/05

6:30 pm- No Trades

Once again the market was very rangy today. I haven't traded for 2 days and it's killing me! It's really one of my weaknesses as a trader. I always want to trade. However, I am very happy that I didn't enter any trades these past 2 days. The market has just been horrible. During the whole US session, the Euro just bounced from the EU session low to high and then to the low again. There was a break past the low, but it happened after 12 noon EDT. I only like to take signals between 8am-12noon. So I guess I can't complain too much. I didn't lose any more money which means I live another day! Hope you all haven't gotten killed in all of this craziness.

8:45 am- Analysis

Sorry for the late post everyone. My internet was down at home so I'm updating from work. Anyways, like OKL said, there was a fairly narrow range during the EU session so there's a good chance we'll see some good movement today; or at least enough of a move to get in on a trade. PPI was also up today but it doesn't look like it really did anything to the Euro. We'll see what happens. Happy trading everyone!

Tuesday, August 16, 2005

EUR/USD 8/16/05

8:15 pm- No trades

Market was UGLY today. I think a big part of it is because it's August; the slowest month of the year. Anyways, the Euro looked like it would move down after the CPI report, but as you can see from the chart, the price never made a significant close below it. The price did move back up to one of my targets that I drew up, but I didn't get any clear signals to enter a trade. Oh well, hopefully tomorrow will be better.

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! The US CPI report comes out today at 8:30 am EDT. I will be waiting until after the report to trade. There was a pretty decent move during the EU Session (about 66 pips), so I don't think the Euro will move that much today. However, I'm usually wrong so we'll see what happens :) Below is my normal chart with the EU session high and low, pivots, and possible targets. I'm hoping I can recover from yesterday. My goal is to finish positive for the week. I might have to consider not trading Mondays (as much as it kills me, haha). I lose most of the time on that damn day! I will be in meetings all day and I don't know if I can trade today, but I'm going to try to sneak away for a little bit at around 9:30 :) Happy trading everyone!

Monday, August 15, 2005

EUR/USD 8/15/05

10:30 am- 1 Trade Lost

3 lots short at 2352; Got stopped out at 2368. I was very close to my 1st target and I was very tempted to close my positions because it struggled to get there. However, I wanted to practice discipline with my trading plan so I told myself that I would either let it hit my target or hit my stop. Unfortunately, today it hit my stop, haha. Today's results: -48 pips. I think Mondays hate me :)

7:45 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Hope you all had a great weekend. The US TIC release is today at 9am EDT. I might wait until after that comes out before I trade. As you can see, the Euro made about a 45 pip range last night and is right at it's low for the EU session. If the Euro breaks below the low before the news comes out, I still might not enter because I don't know what is going to happen after the news release. If I see a strong movement before the news however, I will enter and get out just before the release. I'll keep posting on the message board throughout the day and I'll "try" to post my trades live. Have a great day everyone and happy trading!

Sunday, August 14, 2005

Forex Education

90% of forex traders lose all their money within the first 3-6 months.

This means 90% of all forex traders don’t know what the heck they’re doing! They just jump right in and rely on luck, only to end up giving away all their money to the other 10%. was created to help prevent this from happening to you. Our free online forex trading course and forex education are designed for those new to trading currencies. We stress that you take baby steps when learning to trade. The slower you start, the faster you’ll become part of the elite 10%. Remember - you didn’t learn to walk without first learning how to crawl.

Enter The Beginner's Guide to Forex Trading

About BabyPips is an easy-to-understand guide for teaching you how to trade in the foreign exchange market. Everything you need to get started is right here.

We're here to introduce you to the Forex market, show you different ways to make money in the Forex market, and teach you how to keep that money you make instead of giving it all back to the market. We want you to become a confident and successful trader and not end up like Bitter Bobby who "tried" Forex trading and quickly lost all his money and quit.

When we first started trading forex, it was hard to find information online for beginner traders. If we did find something, the content only covered certain topics and few specialized in forex. After long hours of searching, we were only able to find a hodge podge of sites. It was extremely scattered. We had to learn about support and resistance on this site, the MACD on that site, trading psychology on yet another site, money management on another site…you get the picture.

And this is why we created, so new traders such as yourself wouldn't have to suffer like us having to surf a gazillion pages all over the Web trying to find quality resources about forex trading. We want to be a complete educational resource for all novice forex traders.

That said, we're not going to beat around the bush...we don't believe in get-rich-quick schemes to achieve wealth! If that's what you're looking for then go buy a lotto ticket.

We're also not going to try and trick you into thinking trading currencies is a piece of cake and that "with just 10 minutes per day" you can "go from ashy to classy" or "transform your computer into an ATM machine that only spits out Benjamins".

Learning how to consistently make some moola on Forex is no different than learning how to play basketball (yes we're forex traders by day, street ballers by night yo). First you gotta learn the fundamentals, get the right equipment, study the basic techniques, and practice practice practice until you become good. For some, this could take a very long time.

You’ve probably heard the famous “give a man a fish/teach a man to fish” quote by Yoda.

So we’re not going to just hand you a fish; instead, we’re going to teach you how to catch a fish. Actually we’re going to show different ways of catching a fish and just maybe you might come up with your own fishing style and method.

We want you to learn what you can from us and take the parts that you like and develop those parts into a workable trading plan that you can use it for own trading.

So now we end with this mind-boggling tongue twister:

Our goal is to help you help yourself make money by trading money...

while cracking as many corny jokes as possible along the way.

Enter BabyPips

Forex Systems

Currently, I only follow one system. It is a combination of the FX10 strategy and my own personal tweaks. Here is the link to all my FX10 Trades

Blog Updates

Hi Everyone,

Over the weekend, I've been planning out how I want to continue with this blog. I've decided that I want to expand it to more than just my trade journal. I really enjoy sharing information with other traders, especially new traders who might not know where to go for resources. So over the next few weeks you might see posts that seem "out of the ordinary". I have to make each post as if it is a separate web page so that I can link back to it (those of you with blogs know what I'm talking about). Anyways, I will still be posting my trades as I normally do, but I just wanted to give a heads up to everyone that frequents here that they might see some strange posts. Please don't mind the construction :)

FX10 Trading Strategy Links

Here is the most recently updated links to the FX10 Trading Strategy.

MoneyTec Forum

Bunny Girl System Links

It was brought to my attention that the link I had to the Bunny Girl system didn't work. So here are the updated links to the Bunny Girl System.

Original Thread
BunnyGirl Followers thread
BunnyGirl Strategy Files

Hope this helps :)

Friday, August 12, 2005

FX10 Results 8.08.05 - 8.12.05

Here are my results for the week:

Monday: +12
Tuesday: Missed trade :(
Wednesday: +39
Thursday: +13
Friday: +28

Total: + 92 pips

Click here to see the overall stats for my FX10 Tweak Strategy <--This really needs another name. Any ideas?

EUR/USD 8/12/05

2:30 pm- 1 Trade Won

I apologize for not posting my trade live, but like I said earlier my entry was late. The reason I entered was because the original target from my "intended" entry point was not hit yet. My target was 2382, and I was able to enter at 2399. This turned out to be the best exit point because the Euro bounced right back up after hitting 2381. I was able to close 2 lots out at 2382 and my last lot got closed out at breakeven. My results were +34 +3 -9(spread)= +28 pips . I hope you all got some of that trade as there was a good breakout of the EU Session low. That would've easily gotten you at least 10 pips :)

You can see from the chart that my typical entry signal was given with the 2 consecutive low candles. The first one touched the 8 WMA (actually it went above it) and both candles were "down" candles. If you don't know what I'm talking about, read my post a few days ago where I discuss how I determine my entry signals.

7:45: am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Today is going to be a good day. I can feel it! The Euro only made a 36 pip range during it's session which is a perfect setup for a decent size move for the US session. Also, the U.S. trade balance comes out today which can also move the market. I'm going to wait until after the dust settles on the news to trade, UNLESS there is a very clear direction. I'll update on the message board throughout the day. Happy trading everyone! Here is today's chart:

On a side note. This time of year is usually the hardest time to trade because many Americans and Europeans are on vacation. The fact that we can still make pips during these times is a very good sign that we can make a profit any time of the year. I hope that encourages you :)

Thursday, August 11, 2005

EUR/USD 8/11/05

5:10 pm- 1 Trade won

Before I post the chart, I think it's only fair that I show you how I get my signals. Today especially, I entered even when there wasn't a breakout. The reason is because my FX10 tweak system generated a signal. Here is a picture of how I determine a signal. This is another snippet of my PDF I'm going to put out.

You can see from the pictue above that I like to wait until there are 2 consecutive lows or highs from the actual FX10 signal candle. My 2nd criteria is that a candle after the FX10 signal candle must have touched the 8wma. My 3rd criteria is that the 2 consecutive candles, must both be either up candles (for long) or down candles (for short). In the example above, you would've entered at the close of that last candle.

Now for today's chart.

You can see that based upon my criteria from above, this was a perfect trading opportunity. My 1st target was hit rather quickly, so I closed 2 lots for +18. That same candle made a huge retracement back, and I got scared and closed my last lot because I was hoping for a strong close above the EU session's high. Since it retraced so far back, I closed my last lot for +4. Minus the spread, my total for today was +13. Not an outstanding day, but it was still a win. And trust me, I LOVE winning :)

7:45 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! I think today we will see some kind of breakout of either the high or low of the EU session. The Euro only made a 41 pip range during it's session, and usually when the range is that small, there is a nice movement during the US session. As usual, I've plotted all the normal lines as guidance for our trades. They are not concrete, but they help with entries and give us possible targets. What's interesting is that the Euro broke 2400 last night. This leads me to believe that the Euro will move up today. As much as I HATE to admit it (anonymous), the sentiment of the Dollar does look rather weak. If the trade balance on Friday doesn't cause the dollar to rise, then I don't know what will. Anyways, I'll be on the message board. Happy trading everyone!

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

EUR/USD 8/10/05

3:50 pm- Trade Won

It was a good day today. Classic trade setup which made for an easy win. I hope you all got a piece of the move. There were many times throughout the day where I almost entered, but thank goodness I was patient and waited until I was absolutely sure of my trade. Around 11:30 am, there was a breakout below the EU session's low. This was good confirmation that the move would continue to go down. Sure enough, the Euro dropped nicely and gave me some quick profits. Here are the trade details:

- Short 3 lots at 2361; s/l= 2382; first target= 2349

- First target hit; Closed 2 lots; Moved last lots stop to 2361; 2nd target= 2337
- 2nd target hit; last lot closed

Result: +24 +24 -9(spread)= +39 pips

I took another trade right before the move, but I didn't post it because it was a personal trade. I didn't think the market was going to move so I went scalping and got 9 pips off of 3 lots. It's kind of funny because the candle that hit my limit was the entry candle for today's real trade. I re-entered after that candle closed and that's how I got the trade from above. My personal total for today was +48 pips.

7:50 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! I have a feeling we'll see some good movement today. How do I know? Well I was born with the gift of telling the future. My mom was Ms. Cleo. haha. Yea right. I'd be richer than Bill Gates if I could tell the future. Anyways, the Euro made about a 60 pip range during the EU session and is around it's mid point right now. I'm sure the Euro is bound to make some kind of move this week. It could be today; It could be tomorrow; or it could be after the Trade Balance on Friday. We'll just have to be ready. Wait for a good entry candle today, since the Euro is right in the middle of it's range, if the Euro breaks 2400, look for a move to 2412. I don't see any clear trades for the short side right now, but if you see a good signal, then by all means, take the trade. As usual, I'll be posting throughout the day in the message box. Happy trading everyone!

Tuesday, August 09, 2005

EUR/USD 8/09/05

5:15 pm- Missed Trade

Hey everyone. I missed a good trade this morning because I was on my to work. Stupid 9-5, haha. Anyways, before I show you the trade, let me first show you how I calculate my targets. This is a snippet of the PDF I am working on for my FX10 tweaked system.

By looking at the chart above and comparing it with today's chart at 8:40 am EDT, you can see that it was a perfect setup. The entry would've been the close of the 8:40 candle and the first target would've been 2340. With 3 lots, you would've closed 2 lots at the first target and let the last lot run. The 2nd target would be 2331. As you can see, both targets were hit, and you would've made a +27 pip profit.

Another reason this trade looked good was that price had broken below the EU session's low. Here is the chart of the missed trade.

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning! Today is a big day as the Fed will talk about the interest rates. However, this is not until 2:15 pm. I'm not sure what the market will do before then, but I'm still going to trade if it makes some movement. Right now the price is hanging around the EU session's low, so I would wait for a break of the pivot point to go short, or a bounce to go long. Ideally, the other lines are targets for when we enter a trade, but I always like to calculate my targets first. I'll keep you posted throughout the day on the message board with my trades. Have a great day everyone. Happy trading!

Monday, August 08, 2005

EUR/USD 8/08/05

5:30 pm- 1Trade Won

Woohoo! I won a trade on a Monday. Actually, it was more of a scalp, but my chart was on the money today. If you look at my chart from this morning and compare it with the chart right now, you'll see that the price moved nicely to my calculated target. I saw a good signal at 10:40am and went short for a profit of 4 pips on 3 lots. Not a great day, but still profitable :) Hope you all did well.

Trade details:
-3 lots short at 2364; Closed at 2360

Result:+12 pips (spread was already factored in)

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone. Hope you all had a great weekend! The EUR made a nice move up during the EU session and made about a 75 pip range. This means that there could be about 35 pips more movement left in it. I've drawn the usual charts with the EU session high/low, and possible targets. Monday's are tricky as I've been losing on them recently, but I think if we're patient we can steal some pips :) I'll keep posting throughout the day. Happy trading everyone!

Saturday, August 06, 2005

Weekend Analysis

Hello everyone! As if I hadn't had enough forex already, I am here with a weekend chart analysis :) If you can't tell by now, I love the forex! Even when I lose, for some reason, I just can't get enough. Each loss I take, I feel like I learn a new lesson, and that gives me great confidence. The more confidence I gain, the more comfortable I get when I trade. I hope you all enjoy this market as much as I do. Now let's get to the chart:

Below is a 60 minute chart that contains all the trend channels from the weekly, daily, and 60 minutes. I re-drew my trend lines because as you all know, the Euro broke through both sides this week. A key level I would watch out for is 2300. 2300 looks like it could be a nasty support area, so if a breakout below occurs, I think we could see a nice move down. For long positions, I'd look for a breakout above the upper trendline of the daily downward channel. This number will change as the price moves along, but if a breakout occurs, I would expect it to go to at least 2400.

The reason I like to do a weekend analysis is because it gives me a "bigger picture". I can review last weeks action and I can also make reasonable guesses as to where the action could be headed. I always leave this chart up on the side when I trade, just to see where I'm at. I encourage you all to do the same. It can be a lifesaver! Well, that's it for now. Have a great weekend everyone!

Friday, August 05, 2005

FX 10 Results 8/01/05 - 8/05/05

Here are this weeks results:

: -60
Tuesday: +3
Wednesday: +24
Thursday: +62
Friday: -7

Results: +22 pips for the week

Not a great week, but at least its positive :)

EUR/USD 8/05/05

11:30 pm- Volatile day

Well, I saw a good trading opportunity when the Euro dropped below the EU session's low. I took some profit at my initial target of 2317, but looking back, I think I should've closed all my lots. If you notice the candle where I took profit, it ended up being a hammer. Also, the candle failed to close below 2320. With those 2 factors, I should've anticipated a reversal, but hey, you can't win them all :) Here are the trade details:

- 3 lots at 2328; s/l= 2358; 1st target=2317
- Closed 2 lots at 2317; moved stop on last lot to 2348
- Got stopped out on last lot at 2348

Results: +22 - 20 -9(spread) = -7 pips

8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! I think we can expect a day like yesterday. With a range of only 37 pips for the EU session, a breakout is bound to happen. Plus, the US Non Farm Payroll comes out at 8:30 EDT and should move the market nicely. In the chart below, you will see the EU session's high/low, pivots, and possible targets calculated from the pip range of the EU session (Thanks OKL). Anyways, try to wait until a clear direction is given before entering a trade, sometimes the market will fake you out. Don't worry, once a clear direction is established, you will still be able to catch some pips; I promise :) Ok, I'll keep posting throughout the day on the message board. Happy trading everyone!

Thursday, August 04, 2005

EUR/USD 8/04/05

2:00 pm- 1 Trade Won

There was a good breakout candle of the EU session's high and I rode it all the way to R1. The lines worked very well for me today as I used them for both my entries and exits. I hope you all were able to catch this nice trade. Nice and easy today. I wish everyday was like this :) Here are the trade details:

- 3 lots at 2364; stop loss= 2335; 1st target 2377
- 2 lots closed at 2377; moved stop loss to 2364
- Last lot closed at 2400 because it did not breakout past this resistance.

Results: +32 +39 -9(spread)= +62 pips

8:00 am- Analysis

I know my analysis is a little late this morning, but I wanted to wait and see if the ECB rate announcement would do anything. And of course it did absolutely nothing! At least not yet. The EU session range is only 49 pips. I am expecting a big breakout during the US session. On the 10 minute chart below, I plotted the EU session's high and low, pivots, support and resistance, and possible targets for the Euro if a breakout occurs. I calculated these targets based on the normal potency of the EUR/USD. These lines should aid you in your trading. Use them for entries and exits. I think we will see some good moves today. I'm not sure if I will be able to trade, but then again I always seem to find time to look at the charts :) Happy trading everyone!

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

EUR/USD 8/3/05

12:30 pm- 1 Trade won

I saw a good breakout of the EU session's high. FX10 signals matched except MACD. I still took the trade because it was such a solid looking breakout. The chart below shows my trade details. I closed all 3 lots because it was past 12 pm and I don't like having trades open past that time.

Results: +33-9 (spread)= +24

7:50 am- Analysis

Wow! What a move the Euro made during the EU session. Over 150 pip range! Today will be interesting. If you look at the first chart (60 min), we can see that the Euro is continuing it's uptrend. It broke a MAJOR resistance at 2250 and is now above 2300. The question is....will it stay up there? The rates are coming out tomorrow so some major movement is in store. I seriously do not think the Euro will keep going up after tomorrow and Friday. But then again, who really knows?

You can see from the chart above that the Euro is testing it's upper channel again. The big question will be whether or not it breaks it or bounces back down. If you look at the 10 min chart below, you will see that the Euro is right around it's high from the EU session. Wherever the Euro goes, I think it will move about 40 more pips. Just remember to wait for a good signal. I'll keep posting throughout the day. Happy trading everyone!

Tuesday, August 02, 2005

EUR/USD 8/02/05

Forgot to post results- If you look at the message board from yesterday, I netted a whopping 3 pips :)

7:30 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Let's hope for a good day today. I have 2 charts today. The first one is the 10 minute chart with the high and low of the EU Session. The range is about 50. The Euro is usually more potent than that so I think we could see about another 50-70 pip move in either direction, so be patient before taking any trades. My mistake yesterday was that my signal came so late, I forgot to think about the Euro's potency. After I was in the trade, the Euro and already had a pip movement of over 100 pips (up and then back down). Had I realized that, I probably would've taken quicker profits or just not entered at all. Sigh, the things you realize AFTER you make trades, haha.

The 2nd chart is the 60 minute which I posted yesterday and Sunday. The big picture is showing that the Euro is right in between it's current trend channel. This means that it's a toss up on whether or not the Euro will move up or down to a trendline. However, it does look like a divergence has formed on the Stochastic and the price, so this could hint at a move down. But, as usual, the market will do what it wants :) Happy trading everyone. I might not be able to trade because I have a meeting today, but hopefully I can squeeze something in :)

Monday, August 01, 2005

EUR/USD 8/01/05

1:00 pm- 1 trade lost

Not a good day for me. I came close to hitting my target (within 3 pips) but it never did hit. So, today was a loss of 60 pips with 3 lots. Mondays can be rough. It's ok though. I take it in stride. I know there will be plenty more good trades. Hope you all did well.

Results: -60 pips

7:45 am- Analysis

Hello Everyone. Here is the same chart I posted this weekend with the Euro's current price. As you can see, the price bounced off of the bottom channel of the 1hr. chart and is at the top of its upper channel. For today's US session, I think we could either see a bounce back down towards the lower channel or a continuation of the breakout. The Euro has moved about 60 pips already so I'm not sure how much steam it could have left. My gut is telling me that we will see a bounce down. Be sure to wait for a good size candle before taking any trades today. I'll keep you posted on the message board if I take any trades myself. Have a great day everyone, and happy trading!

Subscribe to this blog