Thursday, September 14, 2006

Another insignificant day

Once again, nothing really major happened today except for the fact that it's more evident now that the ECB will raise rates again due to inflationary risks. Trichet used his popular statement of applying "strong vigilance" on inflation. That's such a cool term. I'm going to start saying that whenever I need to make a point. "The Los Angeles Lakers and Kobe Bryant are going to apply strong vigilance to the Boston Celtics and Paul Pierce." (Inside joke between me and one of my buddies)

So the Euro made it's way up to 2750 today at around 11:00 am which simultaneously resulted in an Alba breakout. However, with the lack of "juice" that was all she wrote. At around 12:20 pm EST I decided to recoup some of my losses and ended up closing my position at 2743. My entry was at the close of the 10:50 am candle at 2749. Result: -18 -9(spread)= -27 pips

The USD/JPY looks like it could develop into a good trade but it will depend on the US fundamental data coming out tomorrow. We've seen some retracement since it made its 20 day high and now we have a new 2 day low. If I see a strong move towards the upside and a break of the 20 day high I will enter long on that trade. Again, the economic reports will play a big role in this trade on whether or not the price moves in that direction.

The USD/CHF and AUD/USD have also made retracements so I am still watching those charts for an entry but again, this will depend on what the economic reports say.

Adding to the mix, I am also looking at the GBP/USD. It's had a very nice retracement since Monday from a long drop and it recently touched 8900. I will look to short this pair if I see some momentum in the Dollar's favor. As you can see all my trades right now depend on whether the US reports come out positive for the dollar. If they don't then I'm sure most of these potential trades will go away and I'll be stuck again. We'll just wait and see.

We do have quite a bit of news coming out tomorrow. Euro-zone CPI and trade balance come out at 5:00 am EST. US CPI and Empire Manufacturing index come out at 8:30 am EST while Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate come out at 9:15 am EST. Consumer Sentiment comes out at 9:45 am EST. It's quite a bit of news so I probably won't be looking for a trade until at least 10"ish".

Well it's a short post today since I didn't have any note worthy things to talk about, but as always, stay tuned because the Forex never stays dull for too long. Happy trading everyone!


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