Monday, November 6, 2006

Don't say it's a conspiracy! Can someone please tell me how September jobs went from 51,000 to a "revised" 148,000? That is complete malarky! With elections coming up, it's no wonder why the numbers are "misleading"...(get it?) For cryin out loud, can someone just please tell us the truth?

Yes I know I'm ranting and raving again, but I'm not the only one. This seems to be a big topic right now especially since all these crazy revisions are occuring right around election time. Surely, a politics doesn't play a role in the toying with the numbers just to make their party look better to the oblivious general public! (note the sarcasm) Either way, this gives us more evidence that the job market is still hot on its toes. This maybe the last hope the dollar will have and once it's gone, look for the dollar to sell off...big time!


Weekly Bias-O-Meter

My Bias-O-Meter has finally changed. Now I'm seeing signs of a momentum shift and it looks like the market is poised for a longer term dollar sell-off.

EUR/USD; GBP/USD= Bullish

USD/CHF; USD/JPY= Bearish


Coming Up:

There are no major news reports tomorrow. The US will be having their mid-term elections where they will select 1/3 of the Senate and members of the House of Representatives.


Chart Analysis:

EUR/USD












I said on Friday that the Euro would retrace back up to around 2730 and then drop back down. Well with the slow day today, only the first part of that statement came true. The Euro headed to around 2730 earlier today but has stalled since then. The daily stochastics is showing signs for more selling as it is now heading down from the overbought territory. Notice how the 38% Fib line matches with the 50 SMA. Currently the price is at 2720 and I can see the price going to around 2670 or 2650. However, the stochastics on the 4 hr chart is moving upwards and is still not overbought so we might see a little more movement to the upside before the fall.


GBP/USD












The Cable did manage to go to 8950 like I said it would on Friday but now the pair looks like it could use some retracement. On the daily chart I still see plenty of room for selling but in the immediate short term, it looks like the market will retrace upwards. I can see this pair going as low as 8900 which is where the 38% Fib level is.

Trade Idea:

Sell at 1.9050; Stop= 1.9100; Target= 1.8900; (If price gets to 1.9000, I will move my stop to breakeven and trail my stop every 20 pips)


USD/CHF












Friday I said that if the Swissy could break 2550, it would go up to 2600. Well since then it has broken 2550 but has not quite gotten to 2600 yet. It got as high as 2578 before moving back down towards 2550. I still think this pair will hit 2600 but we may see some downward retracement in the short term as the 4hr. stochastics is showing overbought.


USD/JPY












I see alot of spaghetti on the 4hr. chart right now and I don't like to mess with the market when it gets like that. By spaghetti I mean that all my moving averages (50,100,200 SMA) are all bunched up together and it's hard to get any kind of direction. Stochastics on the daily shows plenty of room for more buying but short term stochastics shows signs for an immediate retracement. I can see the price going back down to 118.00 before bouncing back up.


Conclusion:

With not too many major fundamental reports out this week. I think the market will move more in line with the technicals. Pay close attention to support and resistance levels as they will probably hold strong this week.

Happy trading!

BP