Monday, October 02, 2006

Pippin Ain't Easy

Like the title of my blog states, making pips and trading on a regular basis isn't easy. I'm not referring to actually analyzing the market and finding good probability trades. That is actually fairly simple. No no my friend, I'm talking about the monotony of trading. Like with anything that you do over and over, even if it's something you enjoy, there will be times when that "thing" won't seem as exciting and you won't be as into it as you normally are.

With the dollar still in question, I haven't really been able to find a solid fundamental footing, which has been resulting in a lack of trades. I can see technical trades, but to me, I love trades that both fundamentally and technically line up. The pattern right now seems to be that we'll get a negative dollar report and you'll see the dollar lose ground. Then we'll see a report that shows that the dollar might still have some juice left in it, which sparks a rally. Then the cycle repeats all over again.

Today the ISM came out and showed a lower number. The lowest number in over a year. So once again we are seeing the dollar decline across the board. I see a new 20 day low on the AUS/USD and now some retracement. A break of this low after the retracement look would look good technically, but fundamentally that would mean the dollar would have to make another fundamental gain. Medium-longer term I am bearish on the dollar. I am pretty convinced that the rate increase cycle is over. What I'm looking for now is a series of consecutive economic reports to support my bias. This would make it alot easier for me to take technically based trades.

There was an Alba trade today but because it occurred right around the ISM report, I did not take it. The move actually happened right before the report and continued to make another push after the report was out.

So right now I'm still at a standstill. I'm still waiting for the best time to plan an attack. For now, I am keeping my eyes open and staying tuned to what is going on throughout the globe.

For those of you who feel the same as me right now, just know that you are not alone. You don't have to force anything. If you are uncomfortable about taking a position right now, that's ok! Trust your gut. There will always be a better opportunity out there.

Happy trading to everyone!


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