EUR/USD 8/19/05

6:50 pm- 1 Trade missed

I missed a pretty good trade today. There was a classic signal at 9:10 am, but unfortunately I was not able to take it because I was not at my computer. If I did enter, I would've entered at the close of the 9:10 candle with 3 lots short at 2161. My first target would've been 2153 and my initial stop would've been 2177. My first target would've gotten hit and I would've closed 2 lots. My last lot I would've left open and just moved it's stop to 2171. Since the 10:20 candle made a new low, I would've moved my stop to the high of that candle at 2152. Unfortunately, that's where I would've gotten stopped out as the very next candle retraced to 2152. My total would've been +16 +9 -9(spread)= +16 pips












8:00 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Hopefully we get some movement like we did yesterday. The Euro made about a 69 pip range last night, so I'm not expecting too much movement, but hopefully we can still catch something.

I'm trying something different with my calculated targets today. Up until now, I've been taking the pip range of the Euro from the EU session and subtracting it from 111 (the average pip range of the Euro in 2004). However, we all know that market conditions constantly change. I found a site that gives the average daily pip range of all the currency pairs for the past day, 5 days, 10 days, and 20 days. From now on I'm going to take the pip range of the Euro during the EU session and subtract it from the past 5 day, daily average range. That way I my target is more current with the market conditions. You can check out the site at: http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-volatility.htm

As far as which indicators I use, let me just post it here to clarify for everyone:

-5WMA applied to close
-8WMA applied to open
-Stochastic (5,3,3)
-RSI (14)
-MACD (12,26,9) Lines and Histogram

Hope this clears things up.

As for today, the Euro is hanging around its high from the EU session. I'd wait for a clear break of the EU session high or a bounce. What qualifies a bounce? A good FX10 signal of course:) Just be sure to be patient and wait for a GOOD signal.

I'll be posting throughout the day on the message board. Have a great trading day everyone!