Thursday, September 22, 2005

EUR/USD 9.22.05

5:20 pm- 2 trades won

A beautiful trading day today. Just like I suspected, the Euro finally made a breakout of the EU session hi/low. The first signal that was generated wasn't a great looking trade but it still had room before it would test the EU session low, so I decided to enter. I entered 3 lots short at 2209 with a s/l at 2223 and a first target of 2202. My target was hit so I closed 2 lots and moved my stop to breakeven and then ended up getting stopped out on the very next candle. I netted a whopping 5 pips when you factor in the spreads. The 2nd signal I was a little hesitant about because there was an FX10 signal and my criteria was met BUT it didn't significantly close below the EU session low. Also, when I got stopped out on my first trade, the Euro bounced off of the low so I was still skeptical. Fortunately, the next candle did end up closing 10 pips below the EU session low and I entered 3 lots short at 2187 with a s/l at 2213 and a first target of 2171. My first target was hit and I closed 2 lots and moved my stop to b/e. I then proceeded to move my stop to the high of every candle that made a new low. I ended up getting stopped out at 2144 at 10:50. Overall, I'd say it was a great day today. Hopefully, the movement will continue.


Trade 1: +14 +0 -9(spread)= +5 pips
Trade 2: +32 +43 -9(spread)= +66 pips
Total: +71 pips

8:00- Analysis

Good morning everyone! Sorry I didn't do a 2nd post yesterday, but honestly, there was really nothing to say. If you watched the market yesterday you know what I mean. I am definitely anticipating a trade today as the Euro only made a 34 pip range during it's session. I consider this to be a "squeeze". During busy seasons of the year, usually 40-45 pips or less can be considered a squeeze but lately that has been the norm for the Euro. Whenever there is a tight range in the EU session, it usually means there will be a breakout during the US session. I say "usually" because as you know, the market doesn't always act like we expect it to. There aren't any strong news reports coming out today so that might prevent any movement, and also, hurricane Rita is a huge storm now and traders might be waiting until after it passes to see the effect on the US economy. After Katrina, Greenspan said that it was only a minor "setback" in our economy but who knows what will happen after Rita. I also think this is why the Euro has not dropped even with the interest rate increase. This is a time of uncertainty right now, so we'll have to be on our toes. Happy trading everyone!

Key Levels:

EU Session high: 2234
EU session low: 2200
Calculated target 1: 2296
Calculated target 2: 2172

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