Wednesday, July 20, 2005

EUR/USD 7/20/05

1:30 pm- What a day to not be able to trade!

Wow, talk about retracement. Eur shot back up through the roof, and is at a major resistance point. I seriously doubt it will break it, but if it does, it could be a good move up. Sigh, I missed a good day, haha. Hopefully some of you other FX10 traders got some of these pips.

11:15 am- Missed trade

Oh how I hate meetings! I missed a good move after Greenspan spoke. As you can see, there was very little volatility before 10am (black bars), but as soon as 10am hit, movement accelerated quickly (blue bars). I hope some of you caught this trade. I'm still happy to know that my earlier analysis was correct though. I still won't be able to trade as I have alot of work to do. Sigh, I probably won't be able to trade until Friday because I'm off for my birthday! Happy trading everyone. I'll keep posting updates.

7:40 am- Forex EUR/USD Analysis

The EUR made a strong move up yesterday and barely pierced through yesterday's high. However, it can't seem to break R1 and has been hanging there since 9pm last night. 3 things could happen:

1. Eur bounces between R1 and Yesterday's high
2. Eur breaks through R1 and continues up
3. Eur bounces off R1 and heads back below Yesterday's low

What do I think is going to happen? I think Eur is going to make a move down sometime today during the US session. If you look at the stoch, you can see a divergence forming on the 60 min. chart. Also, Greenspan speaks today, and if you know what's going on, you'll know that the USD is only going to keep getting stronger as rates continue to increase. I'm not saying that short trades are the only possibility today. I will say that I'm going to have a down bias, and will take trades easier on the short side. Happy trading everyone!

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