Saturday, July 30, 2005

Weekend Analysis

Hello Everyone!

I thought I'd start adding a weekend analysis just to get an idea of where I think the Euro might be going this week. If you look at the chart below, we have 3 different trend channels from 3 different time frames (daily, 4hr, and 1hr).

By drawing these channels, it gives me an idea of where key levels for the Euro will be in the near future. As you can see, the price is hovering around the top of the downward channel from the 4hr. chart. Currently, the 1 hr. chart is showing an uptrend. What does this tell us? I think we could expect some downward movement towards the lower channel line of the 1 hr. chart. This is where our "make or break" line will be. If the price breaks the lower channel of the 1 hr. chart, I would expect the Euro to keep moving down to the lower channel line of the daily. If the Euro bounces off of the lower channel of the 1 hr. chart, I would expect it to go back up to the upward channel of the 1 hr. chart and continue the 1 hr. trend. I have this chart saved and will post it again, when the price moves next week to give you an update.

*Edited: I totally missed this when I was doing my analysis, but on Thursday, there will be interest rate announcements for the GBP and the EUR. This will be a HUGE mover as well as the US Non Farm Payroll on Friday. I expect to see some major movement on these days.

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