Weekend Analysis

Hello Everyone!

I thought I'd start adding a weekend analysis just to get an idea of where I think the Euro might be going this week. If you look at the chart below, we have 3 different trend channels from 3 different time frames (daily, 4hr, and 1hr).











By drawing these channels, it gives me an idea of where key levels for the Euro will be in the near future. As you can see, the price is hovering around the top of the downward channel from the 4hr. chart. Currently, the 1 hr. chart is showing an uptrend. What does this tell us? I think we could expect some downward movement towards the lower channel line of the 1 hr. chart. This is where our "make or break" line will be. If the price breaks the lower channel of the 1 hr. chart, I would expect the Euro to keep moving down to the lower channel line of the daily. If the Euro bounces off of the lower channel of the 1 hr. chart, I would expect it to go back up to the upward channel of the 1 hr. chart and continue the 1 hr. trend. I have this chart saved and will post it again, when the price moves next week to give you an update.

*Edited: I totally missed this when I was doing my analysis, but on Thursday, there will be interest rate announcements for the GBP and the EUR. This will be a HUGE mover as well as the US Non Farm Payroll on Friday. I expect to see some major movement on these days.

FX 10 results 7/25/05 - 7/29/05

Here are the results for this week:

Monday: +15
Tuesday: -60
Wednesday: +67
Thursday: Didn't trade (sick)
Friday: +33

Week P/L: +55

July Results: +242 pips

Overall not a bad week. I'm positive for this month so thats always good. See you all next week :)

EUR/USD 7/29/05

11:11 am- 1 trade

Hello Everyone! I kind of fibbed on my exit today. I went long at 8:40 am after the GDP report because the euro closed above the high of the EU session. My target was 2163, and it almost hit. Once I saw the hammer, I had a feeling a reversal was coming, so I closed all my lots at 2150. I really don't like to break my rules and always like to wait until my target is hit, but I'm only human :) Anyways, here are the details:

- 3 lots opened at 8:40 am at 2139; S/L= 2083; First target= 2163
- Closed all lots at 10:50 am at 2150 after hammer candle.

Result: +33 pips












7:45 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone. I am feeling a lot better today and am ready to trade! The Euro has been trading in approx. a 50 pip range, so it has made some decent movement. Normally I wouldn't expect much more movement today but the US GDP report comes out so I'm sure this will make things move. Remember to be patient and wait for a good breakout candle to close outside either the high or low of the EU session. I'll keep posting throughout the day. Happy trading everyone!

Sick

Hi Everyone,

I was feeling very sick last night and did not feel like trading this morning. I hope everyone did well. I haven't even looked at my charts yet. Anyways, I have to go see a doctor today because I haven't been feeling right since last Saturday. I'm hoping to be able to trade tomorrow, but it's only if I start to feel better. Happy trading everyone.

EUR/USD 7/27/05

10:11 am- Trade won

Like I thought, the Euro broke out long at 9am. Here are the trade details:

-3 lots opened at 2022 at 9am; s/l= 1973; first target= 2048
-First target hit at 9:10am; Closed 2 lots at 2048; Moved s/l to 2019
-Euro failed to make a new high within 30 minutes so the last lot was closed at 2030

Results: +58+18-9 (spread)= +67 pips












7:45 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone! The Euro is trading in a tight range today (about 30 pips). I'm expecting a good breakout on either side for about 50 pips. If the Euro does not break out of this range, DO NOT trade it. It's not worth stressing over just trying to get a couple of pips. However, usually when the Euro trades in a tight range during the EU session, it will usually breakout during the US session. I'll keep posting throughout the day. Happy Trading everyone!

EUR/USD 7/26/05

9:55 am- Trade Lost

I entered 3 lots at 1.2006 and got stopped out at 1.1986. I have no regrets about taking the trade though. To me, the trade looked good, and it fit my criteria. I was thinking it was going to be the bounce from the EU session's low. Anyways, you can't win them all :) I do think I'm going to take the rest of the day off. Unless I see some major movement, I'll be out of the market the rest of the day. Happy trading everyone.

Results: -60 pips



7:45 am- Analysis

Good morning everyone. The Euro made about a 70 pip drop during the its session and is currently hanging around the low. The Euro's potency is about 100-150 pips, so I'd wait for a good breakout of the low or a bounce. Just be sure to be patient until you see a good breakout candle. Happy trading everyone. I'll keep posting throughout the day. BTW, I will use the message board on the right to call out my live trades. That way you know I'm making these trades live, and not just posting a chart with entry and exit points :)

EUR/USD 7/25/05

3:00 pm- 1 Trade

Right before I left for my doctor's appointment I opened a short trade at 11:10 am (see the message board on the right). Here are the trade details:

-3 Lots opened at 1.2055; Stop Loss= 1.2075; First target= 1.2042
-1st target hit at 11:20 am; Closed 2 lots at 1.2042; Moved stop on last lot to 1.2053
-Last lot was stopped out at 1.2053

Result: +26-2-9 (spread)= +15 pips












10:43 am- No trades

I still see no good trades. A couple of times it looked like the Eur was going to break above the EU session's high but it never really made any strong moves. I will stop having to trade in about 30 minutes so I don't think I will have any trades today. Anyways, hope you all didn't get in the EUR. It's been whipsawing all session.

7:50 am- Analysis

Hope everyone had a great weekend! The Eur made about a 60 pip move during last night's EU session. Remember that a breakout above the EU high or below the EU low will be a good sign of some movement. I will only trade in between the range if a good signal is given. Happy trading everyone.

FX10 results 7/18/05 - 7/22/05

What a great week. If only I could've traded Wednesday and Thursday. My gains would've been awesome. Oh well, I can't complain. I still ended up positive.

Week results:

Monday= -29
Tuesday= +58
Wednesday= n/a
Thursday= n/a
Friday= +25

Total= +54 pips

Sigh, if I would've just kept my trade open today, I would've made a huge gain. I'm going to have to go back to the lab and tweak some exit strategies, haha.

EUR/USD 7/22/05

10:30 am- Trade closed

See I told you so :) I wasn't just talking jibberish this morning. An fx signal was given and the candle closed below EU session's low. Sure enough, after some retracement, the EUR dropped like a rock. Here are the trade details:

Trade entered @ 1.2138; Stop Loss= 1.2160; First target= 1.2130
Closed 2 lots at 1.2130; Moved stop to 1.2144
Moved stop to 1.2120
Got stopped out on the last lot at 1.2120

Result: +16+18-9 (spread)= +25













7:45 am- Analysis....AGAIN!

OMG. I was just finishing my analysis post and WHAM! my browser crashed. Sigh...Anyways, I was talking about an article I read yesterday and how I am incorporating some of it into my trading. Basically the jist is that if you plot the EU session's high and low, and a breakout occurs, then you can almost guarantee a few pips if you trade with the breakout. I did some backtesting and found that it's good when a whole candle (shadow and body) closes outside one of the lines. This method works really well with FX10. If a cross occurs in the middle of EU's high and low, then most likely it is a fake signal. However, if a cross happens near one of the lines and a candle shortly after breaks through the line, it usually made a good sized move. This saves you from alot of bad trades. I plotted it on my chart today for you all to see. Hopefully it happens today and I can prove to you all that I'm not crazy :) Here is the link to the article:

http://www.fxstreet.com/chat/transcripts/20050719chatsession.asp

Read the part about the potency of a market too. It's good stuff. Happy Trading everyone!

EUR/USD 7/21/05

7:45 am- Analysis

After yesterday's jump of the Eur, the price has been ranging for most of the EU session. Right now it's hanging around a resistance area along with yesterday's high. As I speak right now, it made a solid breakout candle past yesterday's high but looks like it might be retracing back. I'm not really sure how things are going to turn out today. Greenspan testifies again so who knows what might happen. Although he said rates will keep increasing, his outlook for the US economy wasn't as "positive" as people expected. Anyways, I won't be able to trade again today, but like I always say, wait for a good breakout or bounce. The EUR usually seems to be at a key level when the US session starts, so it's important to get a good directional bias before trading. Good luck everyone! Will keep you posted.

EUR/USD 7/20/05

1:30 pm- What a day to not be able to trade!

Wow, talk about retracement. Eur shot back up through the roof, and is at a major resistance point. I seriously doubt it will break it, but if it does, it could be a good move up. Sigh, I missed a good day, haha. Hopefully some of you other FX10 traders got some of these pips.

11:15 am- Missed trade

Oh how I hate meetings! I missed a good move after Greenspan spoke. As you can see, there was very little volatility before 10am (black bars), but as soon as 10am hit, movement accelerated quickly (blue bars). I hope some of you caught this trade. I'm still happy to know that my earlier analysis was correct though. I still won't be able to trade as I have alot of work to do. Sigh, I probably won't be able to trade until Friday because I'm off for my birthday! Happy trading everyone. I'll keep posting updates.












7:40 am- Forex EUR/USD Analysis

The EUR made a strong move up yesterday and barely pierced through yesterday's high. However, it can't seem to break R1 and has been hanging there since 9pm last night. 3 things could happen:

1. Eur bounces between R1 and Yesterday's high
2. Eur breaks through R1 and continues up
3. Eur bounces off R1 and heads back below Yesterday's low

What do I think is going to happen? I think Eur is going to make a move down sometime today during the US session. If you look at the stoch, you can see a divergence forming on the 60 min. chart. Also, Greenspan speaks today, and if you know what's going on, you'll know that the USD is only going to keep getting stronger as rates continue to increase. I'm not saying that short trades are the only possibility today. I will say that I'm going to have a down bias, and will take trades easier on the short side. Happy trading everyone!

No trading tomorrow

I have a big meeting tomorrow and will not be able to trade. I will put an analysis out before the US session opens though. I think the big mover is going to be on Thursday anyways after the FOMC minutes are released. Who knows though, I might be able to pull something off.

EUR/USD 7/19/05

1:01 pm- End of Day

Today I took a long trade at 10:30 (see chat on the right). I especially liked this signal because there was a divergence between the EUR price and Stoch. This gave me a good indication that there would be a move up. And that's exactly what happened. Here are the trade details:

Entry- 3 lots at 1.1993 ; Stop Loss=1.1970
Target 1 hit at 1.2003- Closed 1 lot +10 pips
Target 2 hit at 1.2013 in the same candle- Closed 1 lot +20 pips
Moved stop loss to 1.2005
New high was made at 12:20pm; Moved stop to 1.2012
New high was made at 12:30pm; Moved stop to 1.2021
Got stopped out on last lot= +28 pips

Total pips= +58 pips













7:40 am- Analysis

Finally there has been some good movement in the EUR today. The EUR tanked starting at about midnight EST and broke through a major support level, yesterday's low, and another minor support. At it's current state, it is hanging around its minor support 2 and the US session will either show a continuing downtrend towards its minor support 3 at 1.1946, or a bounce back up. Will keep updating as the day progresses. Happy trading everyone.

EUR/USD 7/18/05

Wrapup- Total for the day= -39 + 10 = -29 pips. Lets hope for a better day tomorrow :)

12:00 pm- First target hit. Closed 2 lots at 1.2086. Moved stop to 1.2072 and got stopped out on last lot. (8 pips x 2 lots) + (-6 pips x 1 lot)= +10 pips












11:20 am- I'm in again at 1.2078. S/L=1.2055. First Target=1.2085














9:55 am- Well, 15 mins later and I'm stopped out. Loss = 13 pips x 3 lots= -39 pips.












9:40 am- Long signal. Entered at 1.2068. Stop Loss at 1.2055. First Target at 1.2073. Notice point #4- I added this recently to my charts. It is a volatility measurement. Green means a pretty strong volatility. We'll see what happens.












9:00 am- Thanks to OKL for the heads up on TICS data coming out at 9am EST. I totally missed it. Sorry if that threw anyone off. It sure threw me off. Anyways, now I'm going to wait a few candles to let the dust settle, and then hopefully a good signal will come.

7:40 am- Analysis

The Eur is headed towards a major support line, not to mention Friday's low. If the price breaks both of these lines, I'd expect it to keep moving down the rest of the day. However, there is no big news coming out today, so I'm "expecting" it to either bounce of its major support or Friday's low. Will keep you posted if I have any trades. Good luck everyone.

FX10 Results 7/11/05 - 7/15/05

Trade results for the week:

Total trades: 3
Wins: 3
Losses: 0
Total pips: +138

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday

EUR/USD 7/15/05

11:30- No good trades today. After the news, the price continued to bounce in between its major support and yesterday's low. Oh well, at least it was a positive week with no losses. Sometimes it pays to stay out of the market.












9:20am- Eur is hovering around major support. It broke yesterday's low with the news. Will wait for either a bounce on support or a break.











8:15am- Analysis

Eur reached yesterdays high and is on its way to its low at the time of this post. Normally, I would take this trade now, as all the signals match, but the US PPI report comes out in 10 minutes. Since CPI was unchanged, I'm expecting PPI to be unchanged as well. I'd wait to trade until after the news and a clear direction is given. Look for a bounce off of yesterday's low or a break. That should give us a clear direction of where it will go the rest of the US session.

McGrew MACD Screenshot

Per request, here is a screenshot of the McGrew MACD.

I use McGrew MACD that go with the trend. There aren't trades every day, but when it does give a signal, it makes huge moves.

If you want to learn more about it, read the post made by the creator of the indicator, Phil McGrew.

http://www.xtick.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21

EUR/USD 7/14/05

11:00 am- Well the market did the exact OPPOSITE from what I was thinking (go figure). It went up after the news, and I did not see any clear FX10 signals. Plus,I had a down bias today. I didn't want to trade against my gut feelings, and I'm still up for the week, so I'm actually proud of myself for staying out today :) Maybe I'm gaining discipline?

8:34 am- CPI was unchanged, but Retail sales rose past economists' forecast. Look for a EUR move down.



Analysis
Market is flat right now. Eur has been hovering around yesterday's low since its open. Might not be a good day for FX10. Watch for US CPI report. That could push EUR below yesterday's low and make it go lower.

FX10 Trade- EUR/USD 9am

I usually don't like to trade on news days, but there were 3 reasons that made me want to go short today.

1. Failed to break yesterday's high
2. The US trade balance was "unexpectedly" narrow
3. Very clear FX 10 signal

The 830 candle was crazy as usual, but after 20 minutes, the price started to drop and a clear FX10 signal was given. In addition, the US trade balance was "unexpectedly" narrow which gave a good indication that price would continue to drop.

Trade details:

2 Lots
Entry: 1.2132
Exit 1: 1.2116
Exit 2: 1.2103

Total pips= +45

Alba Track Record

Total Trades: 136

Wins: 99

Losses: 37

Win%: 73%


***********************************************
July 2006 Record
Total Trades: 9
Wins: 6
Losses: 3
Pips: +116 pips

Results for 7.24.06 - 7.28.06
Results for 7.17.06 - 7.20.06
Results for 7.10.06 - 7.14.06
Results for 7.03.06 - 7.07.06



***********************************************
June's Record
Total Trades: 13
Wins: 8
Losses: 5
Pips: -60 pips

Results for 6.26.06 - 6.30.06
Results for 6.19.06 - 6.23.06
Results for 6.12.06 - 6.16.06
Results for 6.05.06 - 6.09.06
Results for 5.29.06 - 6.02.06


***********************************************
May's Record
Total Trades: 9
Wins: 7
Losses: 2
Pips: +274 pips

Results for 5.22.06 - 5.25.06
Results for 5.15.06 - 5.19.06
Results for 5.08.06 - 5.12.06
Results for 5.01.06 - 5.05.06




***********************************************
April's Record
Total Trades: 12
Wins: 8
Losses: 4
Pips: +39 pips

Results for 4.24.06 - 4.28.06
Results for 4.10.06 - 4.21.06
Results for 4.03.06 - 4.07.06

***********************************************
March's Record
Total Trades: 18
Wins: 11
Losses: 7
Pips: +162 pips

Results for 3/27/06 - 3/31/06
Results for 3/20/06 - 3/24/06
Results for 3/13/06 - 3/17/06
Results for 3/6/06 - 3/10/06
Results for 2/27/06 - 3/03/06



***********************************************
February's Record
Total Trades: 11
Wins: 7
Losses: 4
Pips: +29

Results for 2/20/06 - 2/24/06
Results for 2/13/06 - 2/17/06
Results for 2/6/06 - 2/10/06
Results for 1/30/06 - 2/3/06


***********************************************
January's Record
Total Trades: 10
Wins: 7
Losses: 3
Pips: +195

Results for 1/23/06 - 1/27/06
Results for 1/16/06 - 1/20/06
Results for 1/09/06 - 1/13/06
Results for 1/03/06 - 1/06/06


***********************************************
December's Record
Total Trades: 5
Wins: 5
Losses: 0
Pips: +207

Results for 12/19/05 - 12/22/05
*No trades were taken from 12/12/05 - 12/16/o5 due to technical difficulties.
Results for 12/05/05 - 12/09/05

***********************************************
November's Record
Total Trades: 9
Wins: 7
Losses: 2
Pips: +163

Results for 11/21/05 - 11/23/05 and 11/28/05 - 12/02/05
Results for 11/14/05 - 11/18/05


***********************************************
October's Record
Total Trades: 4
Wins: 3
Losses: 1
Pips: +97


We took the rest of October off to finish preparing our brand new forex website, www.babypips.com

Results for 10.10.05 - 10.14.05


***********************************************
September's Record
Total Trades: 5
Wins: 5
Losses: 0
Pips: +244

Results for 9/19/05 - 9/23/05
Results for 9/12/05 - 9/16/05
Results for 9/05/05 - 9/09/05

***********************************************
August's Record
Total Trades: 18
Wins: 14
Losses: 4
Pips: +353

Results for 8/29/05 - 9/02/05
Results for 8/22/05 - 8/26/05
Results for 8/15/05 - 8/19/05
Results for 8/08/05 - 8/12/05
Results for 8/01/05 - 8/05/05

***********************************************

July's Record
Total Trades: 10
Wins: 8
Losses: 2
Pips: +247


Results for 7.11.05 - 7.15.05
Results for 7.18.05 - 7.22.05
Results for 7.25.05 - 7.29.05

FX10 Trades

Here are all my posts regarding FX10 Trades.

Overall Track Record

October:
Trade Results: 10.10.05 - 10.14.05


September:
9/26/30 - 9/30/05- No trading due to technical difficulties
Trade Results: 9.19.05 - 9.23.05
EUR/USD 9.23.05
EUR/USD 9.22.05
EUR/USD 9.21.05
EUR/USD 9.20.05
EUR/USD 9.19.05
Trade Results: 9.12.05 - 9.16.05
EUR/USD 9.16.05
EUR/USD 9.15.05
EUR/USD 9.14.05
EUR/USD 9.13.05
EUR/USD 9.12.05
Trade Results: 9.05.05 - 9.09.05
EUR/USD 9.09.05
EUR/USD 9.08.05
EUR/USD 9.07.05- No trading due to technical difficulties
EUR/USD 9.06.05
9.05.05- Day off- US Holiday

August:
Trade Results: 8.29.05 - 9.02.05
EUR/USD 9.02.05
EUR/USD 9.01.05
EUR/USD 8.31.05
EUR/USD 8.30.05
8.29.05- Day off- UK bank holiday
Trade Results: 8.22.05 - 8.26.05
EUR/USD 8.26.05
EUR/USD 8.25.05
EUR/USD 8.24.05
EUR/USD 8.23.05
EUR/USD 8.22.05
Trade Results: 8.15.05 - 8.19.05
EUR/USD 8.19.05
EUR/USD 8.18.05
EUR/USD 8.17.05
EUR/USD 8.16.05
EUR/USD 8.15.05
Trade Results: 8.08.05 - 8.12.05
EUR/USD 8.12.05
EUR/USD 8.11.05
EUR/USD 8.10.05
EUR/USD 8.09.05
EUR/USD 8.08.05
Trade Results: 8/01/05 - 8/05/05
EUR/USD 8.05.05
EUR/USD 8.04.05
EUR/USD 8.03.05
EUR/USD 8.02.05
EUR/USD 8.01.05

JULY:
Trade Results: 7.25.05 - 7.29.05
EUR/USD 7.29.05
EUR/USD 7.27.05
EUR/USD 7.26.05
EUR/USD 7.25.05
Trade Results: 7.18.05 - 7.22.05
EUR/USD 7.22.05
EUR/USD 7.21.05
EUR/USD 7.20.05
EUR/USD 7.19.05
EUR/USD 7.18.05
Trade Results: 7.11.05 - 7.15.05
EUR/USD 7.15.05
EUR/USD 7.14.05
EUR/USD 7.13.05
EUR/USD 7.12.05
EUR/USD 7.11.05

McGrew MACD

Here are links to all my posts regarding the McGrew MACD.

McGrew MACD Track Record
About the McGrew MACD

EUR/USD 7/12/05

From my analysis last night, I knew that EUR just broke resistance and the upper channel of the daily downtrend. This morning the price just hung around that level. I knew it was going to either break or bounce so I wanted to wait until I had a good breakout candle before trading the FX10 system. From the charts, you can see their was a sell signal at 830 but it wasn't a good breakout candle, so I decided to wait. Sure enough it was a bad signal and I got a good breakout candle at 910am. The indicators also matched up, but I still wasn't convinced it was going to keep moving up, because it's been ranging since 300am this morning. I waited to see if there would be a higher high than the breakout candle, and sure enough it came at 950. I was still kind of skeptical because stochastic was showing overbought, and it was right at 1.2200 but I figured I could get 10 pips. During the trade, there was alot of ups and downs. I usually like hitting my target quickly, but today seemed like a ranging day after the big move during the asian session. Eventually, I was able to take profit at 1.2210 and I closed all my lots because I knew it was a range day.

3 lots
+21 pips

EUR/USD 7/11/05 9am

Signal given at 9am
3 lots

+72 pips

McGrew MACD Track Record

-In this post, I will be testing the McGrew MACD system on XTICK charts.
-Other Indicators: Stoch (14,3,3) , 30 EMA & 62 EMA on 60 min. chart to determine trend.

**************************************************************************

Trading Rules:

-I will only be testing on the GBP/USD, and on a 15 minute chart.

-My entry points will be at the close of the candle that generates a signal.

-If I miss the entry point, I will not enter.

-My stop loss will be the high/low of the signal candle +/- 10 pips.

-My target will be the same amount of pips as my stop loss - spread.

-Exit strategy. When initial target is hit, move s/l to b/e and go for next support or resistance.

-I will only trade 3% of my total account. The lot size will be determined assuming a -30 pip s/l.

-If I enter and my s/l is less than 30 pips, I will add to my position if my entry price is hit again.


**************************************************************************

Stats I want to measure:

-Total Wins:

-Total Losses:

-Win%=

-Avg Win=

-Avg Loss=

**************************************************************************

July 2005
Total trades:
Wins:
Loss:
Pips:

Test Post

Test