It's a ZEW out there!

You wanted excitement? Well today was full of it :) Of course, every day is exciting in the Forex for me but today makes things interesting especially for the EUR/USD. The story of the day was the ZEW. The ZEW (an economic research center) report came out with much lower numbers than expected causing the Euro to lose ground against the Dollar today. In fact, the German ZEW came in at -5.6 which is the lowest since June 2001. The EU ZEW came in at 1.3 which was a much lower number than the forecast of 15. So what do these numbers mean? Well the fact that these numbers came in much lower than expected means that a majority of investors are pessimistic about their economy. Germany is the Euro-zone's biggest economy so with a weak number like todays, the possibility of the ECB raising their rates to 3.5% is looking less likely. Remember, interest rates play a big part in the direction of a country's currency. With the Fed most likely pausing their rate hikes, there is a good probability it will weaken the dollar. However, in the case of the EUR/USD, things aren't looking good for either currency right now. I've been talking about how the Euro would have to have a stronger sentiment in order for it to get past the 2900 level but right now it doesn't look like that will happen. So my theme is still the same. I expect to see more range bound movements between the 2900-2700 level, at least until the end of this week.

There were no Alba trades today as most of the movement occurred during the EU session. During my 8am-12pm EST timeframe, the market pretty much just hovered around the EU session low and then eventually nudged a little lower after 12pm. On a slightly longer time frame I am looking to buy the EUR/USD since I feel this is a dip and that the Euro will eventually head back up to 2900. I will probably scale in my entry since I don't know exactly where the bottom of the dip will be.

I was able to make some pips on the USD/JPY today. Remember, yesterday I talked about how there was major consolidation on the pair for the past 2 days and that I was expecting a breakout. I made a play on this and set a straddle order (an entry to buy and an entry to sell) above yesterday's high and low. Which ever one triggered, I would use my other entry order as my stop and reverse level. With these type of consolidation/breakout trades, I like to play both sides since usually it will move nicely in one direction or the other. I'm currently long with about a 40 pip profit right now but my target is at 117.71 so I have a long way to go. My target is basically double whatever my risk was on the trade. As I write this, the yen is currently at 116.58.

As for the other pairs, I still don't see any sexy setups. Everything looks flat right now and I'm not sure if anything will develop this week, but as always, we'll have to wait and see.

Tomorrow, we have Existing Home Sales and I think the market will make a play on this. It's expected that existing home sales has cooled down so unless there is a surprise, I think the Euro will gain a little strength tomorrow, but again, I don't think it will be anything drastic.

Another day, another dollar...or euro..or pound, yen, frank.... you get the idea!

-BP

Related charts:

Rules are made to be broken

This week looks to be a quiet one as far as economic reports is concerned but that doesn't mean there won't be any excitement. The Euro has already made some moves today as it made a new 20 day high against the dollar. Today's move was probably caused by 2 things: the first is that traders' expectations for the Fed to increase interest rates is reducing, and the second is the better than expected trade balance for the Euro-zone. But even with the new high, notice how 2900 still seems to be the level to break. As I write this, the Euro is slightly under 2900 which confirms my speculation that the Euro will have a tough time making any more gains. I mean, sure, the Euro got as high as 2938 today but what exactly constitutes a clean break? You often hear about people talking about how they will go long or short when a price can break a certain level but how do you define a break? To me, a break cannot have a clear definition. You cannot put a set number of pips and use that as your definition of a breakout. It's possible to use a set number of pips as filters for your trades, but a breakout is very tough to pinpoint. In today's example we see that 2900 was broken by 38 pips and yet at the end of the day, the price has settled back to just under 2900. It's obvious this level still is creating strong resistence. So how will I define a break? To me, the real story lies at the end of the day. What does the market close at? If by the end of the day, the Euro makes a clear break of the 2900 level, then I might consider the pair to have broken that level.

What's causing this resistance? From what I keep reading, it seems like the biggest underlying factor as to why the Euro can't make any new ground is because of the overwhelming amount of existing long positions. This is also serving as a take profit level for traders who are currently long. Another reason is still because of the speculation as to what the ECB will do. There is not a strong enough sentiment for the Euro yet as the data hasn't really given a clear fundamental trend although today's strong trade balance does provide a start. In order for the Euro to make a strong move I would look for 2 things: A sharp decline in fundamental US data or consistently strong fundamental EU data. Either of those should give traders enough confidence to take a position.

Across the board, I still don't see any good trade set ups. Everything I look at seems to be in consolidation mode, especially the USD/JPY. Open up a daily chart of the USD/JPY and you'll notice some tight consolidation. I would expect some sort of breakout in that pair soon. Other than that, there are no pairs that I'm excited about and unless something drastic happens, I'm not sure if anything will develop this week.

For tomorrow, the ZEW economic sentiment at 5 am EST will be the report I look out for. If for some reason the number is above 15.1 (which was the previous number) I would expect to see a sharp spike in the Euro. I will also see if any of the Fed presidents say anything that might cause the dollar to drop. The Atlanta and Chicago Fed presidents are set to speak at 1 pm EST.

Now- regarding the title of my post. Many of you know that I am a stickler when it comes to my trading rules. Well today I must confess that I broke my rules. But before you gasp in disbelief, I must tell you that I did it with very good reasons. Today there was an Alba breakout on the long side but the breakout occurred above the 2900 level. If you've been reading my posts recently, you've seen me rant about how I don't see the Euro making any strong moves above 2900. With the lack of strong Euro sentiment and the large amount of existing long positions, my gut was telling me that the Euro was going to drift back down below 2900. Although the price got as high as 2938, there was still a strong resistance all the way up to 2950 (see the daily chart below). With all of these factors, I broke my Alba rules and decided not to take the long trade that was presented to me on the chart. Now if the Euro went to 3000 I would kick myself in the face but I still would've stayed out. I just don't feel right going long right now on the Euro unless it's on a dip (like around 2700-2800). This is why I put the safety on and kept my trigger finger from pulling. This market is so dynamic that SOMETIMES you must bend your rules no matter how accurate your system is. A system is only as good as the trader behind it and that is something I've learned with time. No longer do I blindly follow systems just because of their sexy track records. Everything must be done with good timing and today, the Alba system did not match up with the market. Sure, I wish I could get in a trade and make some pips, but at the same time I know I have to attack at the best possible time. Right now is NOT that time.

Results: +0 pips

That's it for me today. Hope you all had a great day!

Related charts:

Start your weekend early with "Boring Friday"

This entry will be shorter than normal. Why? Well today was about as boring as having to actually do "real" work.

Let's see, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence report came out today at a lower than expected number at 78.7. Even with the low number, the Euro failed to make any new gains against the dollar. My theme is still the same as it was yesterday. From what I've read, it seems that the Euro will have a hard time gaining more ground on the dollar because of all the existing long positions in the market. 2700-2900 seems to be the buy/take profit levels. My gut tells me that the dollar won't be able to make it lower than 2700 and if it does, I seriously doubt it will go any lower than 2500. With the dollar sentiment getting weaker, I think that when these levels are hit, traders will add or go long to get in at a good price. I read that less than 20% of traders believe the Fed will raise interest rates so I don't see how the dollar will make any strong improvements.

On the other hand, the Euro-zone data isn't looking so hot either so an interest rate increase is still up in the air. This, coupled with the high number of existing long positions leads me to believe that the Euro will have a hard time getting past the 2900 level at this point.

As far as the other pairs I am watching, I don't see any good setups yet. Everything seems to be in range which makes sense to me as there are no clear fundamental trends yet. All my technical analysis shows consolidations at this point. I will not force anything and will wait until I see something worthwhile.

Trading for me today was pretty boring as I stared at my charts waiting for something to happen, but nothing ever did. Not everyday can be exciting and sometimes, boredom is just part of the game. The key is to take it in stride and not to get frustrated when you can't find a trade. Don't ever feel like you "have" to make pips everyday. This will most certainly get you into trouble. I used to struggle with this for a long time even though I heard the warnings of other traders. Sometimes you just have to learn it on your own but if you can learn to be patient now, you'll have a jump start to a successful trading career.

Alba was also uneventful today. You can see from the chart that the Euro stayed within the EU session range and I didn't see any breakouts. According to my rules, there was an Alba signal at the 9:40 candle but if you read my post yesterday I was watching out for the Consumer Confidence report at 9:45 so I did not take the trade. Other than that, there was really nothing too exciting.

Results: +0 pips

Well that's my ramble for today. Hope you all have a great weekend!

-BP


Related Charts:

Dollar fights back

The dollar made a late comeback after the Philadelphia Fed Index came out at 12pm EST. The index came out at a much higher number than expected. Top that with the lower jobless claims and you get a pretty good fundamental day for the dollar. Add to that the weak EU data (CPI, and IP) and you can get an idea of why the dollar was able to gain its ground. I was also reading around and found that another thing keeping the Euro from rising is the fact that there are so many existing long positions right now. If you look at the daily chart (see below) you'll notice that there was a huge rally in the Euro from March to May and since then the dollar has been stuck in a range. Also notice how the price has bounced twice off of the 38% Fib level. This is telling me that the Euro rally may not be over as more traders are buying off of dips.

The widespread sentiment seems to be the at the Fed will most likely pause in rate hikes. The bigger question now is what will the ECB do? With weak data coming out like today for the Euro, the question of whether or not the ECB will raise rates before the end of the year is still up in the air. We are definitely in a range for the Euro albeit a wide range (2950-2500). I think traders will still be buying on the dips of the Euro so I will look at possible long entries on the 00's (i.e. 2700, 2600, and 2500). Short term, I think the dollar will gain a little more ground, but my longer term view on it is bearish.

My AUD/USD trade from yesterday did not trigger as the dollar made a nice gain against the Aussie. I am removing my entry order as I wanted the trade to trigger today. I will keep my eye on it and wait to see what happens before looking for another entry.

I don't really see any good trades right now, so I will not force anything. My goal is to see only what the charts give me and not to let my eyes fool me. I've looked at all my charts and have not seen any good setups for tomorrow so I will continue to wait. Tomorrow, my only trading will consist of the Alba system and I will look at the Cable. I am trying something new on the Cable so I am anxious to see if it will work out.

The only economic report that I will watch out for tomorrow is the University of Michican Consumer Confidence Index which comes out at 9:45 am EST. The number is expected around 83.8. I don't think it will move the market much unless there is a big drop in the index.

The Alba system once again kept us out of the range bound market from 8am-12pm. You can see from the chart that the Euro didn't go anywhere until after 12pm. Unfortunately by that time, I was already done trading for the day. I do feel "left out" as I wasn't able to grab any pips as the dollar made its move but once again, I stuck to my time frame rules and stayed out because it was already past 12pm EST.

Alba result: +0 pips

That's it for me today. Have a great day everyone!

Related charts:

Trying something new

Instead of just posting my trades from one system, I'd like to start writing down my thoughts. In addition to posting my Alba trades, I will also try to make an effort to post more in-depth thoughts, not just on the EUR/USD but on any pair where I see potential trades. The idea is that hopefully my journal will serve as a guide for you if you trade full time or would like to see what goes on inside the mind of full time trader. You will see my thoughts, not just on the market, but my emotional thoughts. I will post trading rules, economic events, my game plan, and then I will analyze my actions and criticize what I did for the day. Did I stick to my rules? How did I feel about my trade? What can I do to improve? All these things will help give me a better perspective on myself as a trader and hopefully it will inspire you to do the same. By analyzing yourself you can figure out where you are in your trading career and make efforts to improve in your weaker areas. So with that said, this will be my first post :)


My overall view of the dollar right now is that it has reached a peak. We all know that the Fed is most likely halting its interest rate hikes, but the impact really lies in the fact that the BOE, ECB and BOJ seem to be on the verge of continuing to raise their rates. Interest rate differentials play a key part in trading and I can see the dollar going down throughout the next several months. We can already see the signs of it as US data is getting weaker. Strong data in other economies will also help accelerate the dollar decline so I would pay close attention to them.

Since it was my first day back to trading today I felt very refreshed and excited to trade. Normally, when I get excited, I tend to overtrade, but over the years I've learned to control my excitement and hold out until I actually see a good trade instead of just seeing what I want to see. I didn't take any trades today and although I would've rather had positive pips, I'm proud of myself for not making any dumb trades. It was especially tempting since there were plenty of economic reports to fuel the market movements but I did not see any good entries. I'm glad I controlled my temptation to jump especially since my chart was moving so fast during those times.

There is one pair that has particularly caught my eye and that's the AUD/USD. I see a potential for a good long trade on this pair. One reason is that I am dollar bearish and the second reason is that there is a perfect order lining up. If you don't know, a perfect order is when you have several moving averages ranging in different periods (fast MAs and slow MAs) and they all cross over each other so that they all line up. For example, if you have a 5, 13, 30, and 64 SMA, you would look for the 5 to be above the 13, the 13 to be above the 30, and the 30 to be above the 64 for a long trade and vice versa for a short trade. Perfect orders are great for determining trends and right now, the AUD/USD is showing a set up for a nice long trend. I am using a daily chart for this because this will be a longer term trade.












I am going to look to buy when the pair breaks its most recent high which is at 7712. I will place my stop a few pips below the most recent low which is at 7583. So I'll just place my stop at 7573. My target will be double my risk so that I will have a 2:1 reward to risk ratio. Since I will be risking 129 pips on this trade I will go for 258 pips. My target will be at 7970.

I'm not sure if this will happen tomorrow but I'd like to see this trade trigger within the next 2 days. If it doesn't I will re-evaluate the trade.

The only piece of news I will watch tomorrow will be the Jobless claims at 8:30 am EST. I don't know if this will have a strong affect on the market but if it's a big increase, look for the dollar to fall.

That's all I can think of for today. I don't see any other trades right now. I will continue to trade Alba, and I will also watch the Cable for potential trades.

-BP

Forex Trade- 8/16/06

4:45 pm EST- No trades

Well with the first day back, I saw no action. Actually, let me re-phrase that: there was plenty of action, but I didn't get any of it...hmm...sounds kind of like my love life! :)

With the narrow EU range, I knew there would be a breakout, especially with all the news coming out today. Sure enough, after the CPI report at 8:30, the Euro broke through the EU high. I saw a good breakout on the 9:10 candle but we also had news at 9:15 so I didn't take the trade. After that, the movement was pretty much done and the price hovered around the 2850 level. So there was alot of movement today, but unfortunately I couldn't find any good entries. I'll have to wait another day. Hope you all had good trading days today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Wow! It's been a while!

For the few of you who actually read my little journal, you've probably noticed that I have been gone for about a week now. Where have I been hiding? The answer is that I took a nice week of vacation in Las Vegas. Although it was extremely hot, I had a great time getting away from the norm of my daily activities. Needless to say, I haven't been trading since I've been gone and I actually had a little scare traveling back. The airline I was with lost my luggage (including my laptop) for a few days and it really had me frustrated and upset. Thankfully, they were able to find my bag and everything was still there and in one piece. So now I write to you on my newly recovered laptop and just want you all to know that I will be resuming my trading starting tomorrow.

Thank you for all your emails with your concern. I really appreciate them! Now it's back to reality and I'm refreshed and ready to get back to trading!

Cheers,

-BP

Daily EUR/USD thought

What happened today?

Although the ECB raised rates as expected, the Euro could not clearly break the 2800 level. Remember, this rate increase was already priced into the market so it was not a surprise when the ECB actually made the rate decision. Traders have taken a pause because of the Non Farm Payroll report tomorrow.


Looking Ahead

The NFP report will be watched very closely because it will give a clearer indication as to what the Fed will do regarding the US interest rates. The US interest rate decision will be a big event as this is NOT priced into the market. If the US does raise rates, look for the dollar to gain some ground against the Euro. As we get nearer to the rate announcement, it looks like speculators are leaning towards the idea that the Fed WILL increase rates. Interest rate futures show that there is a 41 percent chance the Fed will increase rates next week. This number has been going up as we get closer to the rate announcement. Whatever the Fed does, I would expect to see a pretty good move in the EUR/USD.


Technically Speaking..












You can see on the daily chart that the Euro cannot break the 2800 level. I would wait until there is a good break or bounce off of this level before taking any trades.



On the 4 hour chart you'll see that the price is still bouncing within it's most recent upward channel. Again, the key level is 2800. If the price makes a good break of this level I could see it going to at least 2860 with 2900 and 2940 as agressive targets. If the Euro moves down to 2750 I could see it going to at least 2700 which is right above the 38% Fibonacci level.

Forex Trade- 8.03.06

10:00 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Well unfortunately even with the Interest Rate announcement I wasn't able to grab any pips today. At the close of the 8:40 candle (8:50) I saw an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots long at 2825 with a stop at 2788 and a target at 2847. The Euro could not move any higher and made a sharp reversal and stopped me out on all 3 lots at 10:50 am EST. It was a pretty bad loss today but it's still early in the month so we still have a lot of time to make up for it. Hope you all had a good trading day today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -111 -9(spread)= -120 pips

Daily Thought on the EUR/USD

Pause in EUR/USD- Fundamental outlook

Not only were there no major economic reports to drive the market today, but the lack of volume can be compared to as the "calm before the storm". By storm, I am referring to tomorrow's ECB rate announcement. The ECB is expected to raise rates but before you go buying your Euro's you should keep in mind that the rate hike is already priced into the market. What you want to look out for tomorrow are the signals of whether or not the ECB plans to continue raising rates in the future. Seeing as how last month, Trichet testified that they would take strong action against inflation might be a sign that the ECB will continue raising rates throughout the year.


Technical Outlook in the EUR/USD












The Euro once again found resistance at 2800. This level will be a good one to watch especially with the rate announcement coming out tomorrow. If price makes a good break of this level I could see it going as high as 2940 (the next resistance point on the chart). If you're looking for a more conservative target, 2860 would be another good level to take profit. That is a shorter term resistance level.

Forex Trade- 8.02.06

4:20 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Seeing as how there were no major news reports today I expected there to be a lack of movement. However, I did see an Alba signal at 9:20 am EST and I entered 3 lots long at 2813 with a stop at 2797 and a target at 2822. I felt good about the trade because my target was within the EU range but unfortunately it didn't work out for me. I ended up getting stopped out of all 3 lots at 11:00. Hopefully the rest of the week will be better. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -48 -9(spread) = -57 pips

Forex Trade- 8.01.06

3:00 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Finally, we are starting to see some movement as traders are starting to put their money where their speculative minds are! After the news reports today we saw some decent movement in the Euro and were able to bring in some pips. At 11:20 am EST there was an Alba signal and I entered 3 lots long at 2753 with a stop at 2739 and a target at 2762. My target was hit at 11:40 and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to the low of that candle. I continued to trail my stops as new highs were made and at 1:00 pm EST I decided to close out my last lot because 2820 was hit again but could not be broken. That and the fact that it was already past my trading hours, I went ahead and closed my trade out at the close of that candle at 2815. Overall it was a good day and a good way to start off the month. Hopefully we'll continue to see more movements like these. Hope you all caught some of the action. Cheers! ~ Big Pippin

Results: +18 +62 -9(spread)= +71 pips

Alba results for 7.24.06 - 7.28.06

Well this week helped us close the month of July on a strong note. Even though it looked like we might have our 2nd losing month, the markets finally began to pick up and we were able to grab some pips. I'm hoping after this month we can back into full stride with the Alba system and begin to bring in bigger profits.

Monday: No trade
Tuesday: +139
Wednesday: +18
Thursday: -33
Friday: Breakeven trade

Total: +124 pips

Total for July: +116 pips

Forex Trade- 7.31.06

4:45 pm EST- No trade

Well like a typical Monday, there wasn't much going on today in the market. The Euro pretty much stayed range bound and I did not see any breakouts. We almost had an Alba signal but the price closed too close to our EU session low for us to take it. Overall it was a very quiet day and not a good time to trade. Hope you all were able to avoid the temptation to trade today :) Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips













*****************************

On Friday, July 28, I had a breakout after the news report and was at a nice profit. I came close to hitting my target but then the price shot back down and I ended up having to close my trade out at breakeven. Sometimes thats just how it works out. At least I didn't end up losing anything. The market will just do what it wants :)

Forex Trade- 7.27.06

3:10 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Today was an interesting day in the Euro. We had economic reports at both 8:30 and 10:00. As you all know I do not like trading around news candles so I wait at least 20 minutes until after the news before entering a trade. After the 8:30 reports I saw an Alba breakout at 9:10 am EST. I entered 3 lots long at 2762 with a stop at 2732 and a target at 2778. The Euro got within 5 pips of hitting my target but then reversed on me. Knowing that there was another news report coming out at 10:00 am EST I closed all 3 of my lots when the price looked like it was not going to hit my target. I ended up getting out at around 9:45 at 2754. After the 10:00 am news I did not see any other trades. There was some good movement today it just didn't go the way I hoped. I am definitely happy now that the market is starting to move. Hopefully tomorrow will be better. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -24 -9(spread)= -33 pips

Forex Trade- 7.26.06

4:50 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Well today was a bittersweet day for me. I was able to manage a win which is always nice but unfortunately Alba took me out a little early and I missed nice move that happened later on in the day. I saw an Alba breakout at 10:10 am EST and I entered 3 lots long at 2310 with a stop at 2592 and a target at 2322. My target was hit at 10:30 am EST and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven where unfortunately I was stopped out on the next candle. The market took a quick breathe and then proceeded with the trend as I watched on the sidelines. I'm only human. I can't help but want those pips that I missed out on but I'm still content with the fact that the system won today. There will always be moves like this in the future. Hopefully I'll be on the next one :) Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +24 +3 -9(spread)= +18 pips

Forex Trade- 7.25.06

2:50 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Well after a long wait we finally saw some movement today. It was caused by the unexpected jump in the consumer confidence report. This surprise led to a boost in the dollar and caused the euro to drop like a rock. At 10:30 am EST I saw an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2615 with a stop at 2664 and a target at 2590. My target was hit at 11:20 am EST and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to the high of that candle. I continued to trail my last lot's stop up until the high of the candle marked in the chart which is where I was eventually stopped out at 2566. I've been waiting a long time for this kind of movement and I'm glad we finally got a good sized trade. Hopefully we can continue to see these kinds of moves the rest of the month. Hope you all caught some of these pips. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +50 +98 -9(spread)= +139 pips

Forex Trade- 7.24.06

3:30 pm EST- Breakeven trade

Well once again, we start the week of slow. There wasn't much movement in the EUR/USD today but I did still see a signal. I was kind of weary about it because it happened late in the day and because of that I decided to hold onto my trade longer than normal. At 11:00 am EST I saw an Alba signal and I entered 3 lots short at 2619 with a stop at 2635 and a target at 2610. By 2:00pm EST my target still wasn't hit and I decided to close my trade out. I waited until the price reached breakeven and I closed out all 3 lots. It wasn't the start I was looking for but at least we got through the day without a scratch. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +0 pips

Alba results for 7.17.06 - 7.20.06

Well it was an ok week for Alba but I'm disappointed that we aren't seeing more movement. Right now it feels as if we are in a lull so I am hoping to hold steady until the movement picks up again. I didn't trade on Friday because I was on the road driving up from Florida back to Virginia. That is a loooong drive. I don't recommend that you do it! Anyways, let's hope for next week to be better. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Monday: No trade
Tuesday: +47
Wednesday: No trade
Thursday: +6
Friday: No trading (traveling)

Total: +53 pips

Total for July: -8 pips

Forex Trade- 7.20.06

9:05 pm EST- 1 Small Trade Won

Well movement today was minimal but we were still able to grab a few pips. At 11:20 am EST there was an Alba signal and I entered 3 lots short at 2628 with a stop at 2647 and a target at 2619. At 12:30 pm EST the Euro dropped within 3 pips of my target and since it was already past our trading hours I decided to close all 3 of my lots. I exited at 2623. It wasn't the ideal trade, but at least it worked out ok. Hopefully tomorrow will be better and we can end on a good not. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: + 15 -9(spread)= +6 pips

Forex Trade- 7.19.06

3:30 pm EST- No Trades

Well we had plenty of economic reports today to fuel the market but unfortunately it wasn't enough to give us a breakout or signal. Both the 8:30 and 10:00 candle caused breakouts but because I don't trade news candles, I stayed out. After each of those candles I didn't see any further confirmation that those trends would continue and stayed out both times. Hopefully we'll have better days tomorrow and Friday.

On a side note, I thought I might add that I see a possible trade for the AUD/USD. This is more of a swing trade so the risk is fairly high. I will set an entry order to buy the AUD/USD at 7566 with a stop at 7456 and a target at 7766. If this trade is not triggered by the end of the trading day tomorrow, I will remove my order. I just thought I'd throw it out there because it looks like a nice trade. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 7.18.06

7:50 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Well with the plethora of economic reports today, the market gave us enough juice to grab a trade. At 10:00 am EST, there was an Alba signal and I entered 3 lots short at 2507 with a stop at 2547 and a target at 2486. My target was hit at 10:30 am EST and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to the high of that candle. I trailed my last lot's stop to the high of the next candle which is where I was eventually stopped out at 11:00 am EST at 2493. Overall it was a decent day and I'm hoping we can have more trades like this during the rest of this month. Hope you all were able to grab some pips as well! Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +42 +14 -9(spread)= +47 pips

Forex Trade- 7.17.06

2:50 pm EST- No trades

Well like a typical Monday, there was very little movement during our session today. Unlike the EU session where the Euro dropped over 100 pips, the US session provided very little action. We'll just have to wait until tomorrow and hope that we can finally start seeing some movement during our trading time. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Alba results for 7.10.06 - 7.14.06

Well it was another bad week for me. I know it's kind of a tricky time right now so I'm not too worried. I just have to stay positive and trust that the system will eventually bring me back to positive pips. Have a great weekend everyone!

Monday: -54
Tuesday: +12
Wednesday: No trade
Thursday: -33
Friday: No trade

Total: -75 pips

Total for July: -61 pips

Forex Trade- 7.14.06

2:10 pm EST- No trade

Well today was full of economic reports but unfortunately I didn't see any good entry points. It wasn't until 9:45-10:00 am EST that I came close to taking a trade. Consumer sentiment was only marked as a yellow event on Forex Factory, but because I wasn't in a trade, I waited to see what the 9:40 and 9:50 candle would do. At 9:50 we saw a big move which caused a breakout. Because this move was volatile, I treated it as if it were a regular news candle and stayed out of the trade, deciding to wait at least 20 minutes to take a trade. After that move, I did not see any further breakout or signal trades and ended up staying on the sidelines today. Overall it's been a strange week but I'm staying optimistic that the next week will bring in better trades. Have a great weekend everyone! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 7.13.06

4:15 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Unfortunately today was another loss for the Alba system. It seems we just can't get out of this slump. I kind of had a bad feeling about the trade just because it happened so late and there weren't that many fundamental reports out today. However, I stuck to the rules and entered accordingly. At 11:10 am EST there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2666 with a stop at 2709 and a target at 2643. By 12:30 pm EST, my target was still not hit and I decided to cut my losses and closed all 3 lots out at 2674. We have a few economic reports tomorrow so hopefully we'll see some movement and can grab some pips. Happy trading everyone! ~Big Pippin

Results: -24 -9(spread)= -33 pips

Forex Trade- 7.11.06

2:20 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Today we had a small win with an Alba signal. At 9:00 am EST, there was a good Alba signal and I entered 3 lots short at 2726 with a stop at 2740 and a target at 2717. My target was hit on the next candle and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. Unfortunately, the price reversed and stopped me out at breakeven on the very next candle. So it was another small win, but at least it we were positive for the day. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +18 +3 -9(spread)= +12 pips

Forex Trade- 7.10.06

2:20 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Well unfortunately today was not a good start to the week. Early on the market teased us of a short trade as the Euro hovered around the EU session low. It wasn't until 9:30 am EST that I saw a good Alba breakout. I entered 3 lots short at 2723 with a stop at 2738 and a target at 2715. Unfortunately the Euro did not continue to head down and retraced just enough to stop us out. It wasn't a huge loss but I would've much rather had a win today. It's still early in the week so I'm hoping we can make up some ground in the next few days. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -45 -9(spread)= -54 pips

Alba Results for 7.03.06 - 7.07.06

This was a short trading week with the holiday so not much happened. Hopefully we can gain some momentum and have a nice month to compensate for last month's disappointing loss.

Monday: Holiday- No trade
Tuesday: Holiday - No trade
Wednesday: +14
Thursday: No trade
Friday: No trade

Total: +14 pips

Total for July: +14 pips

Alba Results for 6.26.06 - 6.30.06

Well we finished the week slightly positive but it wasn't enough to bring us back to positive pips for the month. This is the first negative month that Alba has had since inception so I'm not too worried. I knew had to happen sometime but it still stinks to lose :) Hope you all did better than me!

Monday: No trade
Tuesday: -24
Wednesday: +22
Thursday: No trade
Friday: +16

Total: +14 pips

Total for June: -60 pips

Forex Trade- 6.30.06

2:10 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Well today we were able to manage another small win. However, I looked back and realized that I messed up on my trade. I entered at the right spot but my target and stop were wrong. Either way I would've won but I still want to note that I made a mistake in today's trade so hopefully I don't do it again :) The news releases at 8:30 am EST caused a breakout but because it was a news candle I did not enter. At 9:10 am EST I saw an Alba signal/breakout and I entered 3 lots long at 2757 with a stop at 2741 and a target at 2768. I knew that the PMI report was coming out at 10:00 am EST so I made a decision that if I was in the money by the time of the news release I would exit my trade but if I was negative I would just hold it and hope for the best. At 9:40 am EST my target was hit and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven where I was stopped out on the very next candle. So it was a small win and certainly not enough to bring me back to positive for the month but at least we ended the month on a good note. Here's to better month...Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +22 +3 -9(spread)= +16 pips

Forex Trade- 6.29.06

4:15 pm EST- No trades

Today was a pretty quiet day as the Euro stayed within the EU range during our trading hours. We did almost have an Alba signal but it was too close to the EU high for us to take. I'm guessing that the lack of movement was due to traders anticipating the interest rate decision by the FOMC later in the day. After the interest rate decision was announced there was a nice move in the EUR/USD. Unfortunately our trading day was already finished. Hopefully we can get one more win tomorrow and close the month out on a good not. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 6.28.06

3:35 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Well finally Alba was able to pull a win today. It wasn't a big one but it sure does feel better to finally win after a string of losses! I knew that Crude inventories were coming out at 10:30 am EST but I viewed as a minor news event so I was planning to still trade. However, if I didn't have a trade and Crude inventories came out with a surprise and caused a volatile candle (30 or pips range) then I would've waited at least 20 minutes after before entering a trade. Today the trade came right before the report and I still entered. Luckily it worked out in my favor today. At 10:20 am EST there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2534 with a stop at 2555 and a target at 2520. My target was hit on the 10:30 candle and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. I didn't see a good time to trail my stop so I left it at breakeven and unfortunately that's where I was stopped out on my last lot. We're still negative for the month, but at least we're gaining back some of our losses. Hope you all did well today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +28 +3 -9(spread)= +22 pips

Alba Results for 6.19.06 - 6.23.06

Well this was a really tough week as I suffered 2 major losses. I'm hoping we'll see some big moves next week so I can make up some ground and try to end the month positive.

Monday: +12
Tuesday: -63
Wednesday: No Trade
Thursday: +12
Friday: -75

Total: -114 pips

Total for June: -74 pips

Forex Trade- 6.23.06

2:40 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Well unfortunately this week ended on a bad note. After the Durable Goods report, there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2478 with a stop at 2500 and a target at 2466. I was stopped out on all 3 lots at 9:00 am EST. It hasn't been a good 2 weeks for Alba and I'm hoping I can make up some ground next week. I'm kind of anxious because I haven't had a negative month yet with this system so this could be a first. I will stick to the rules and not force any trades next week. Hopefully everything will work out :) Have a great weekend everyone. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: -66 -9(spread)= -75 pips

Forex Trade- 6.22.06

2:15 pm EST- 1 Small trade won

Today was one of those days where I wish I was trading during the EU session. What a nice move the Euro made during its session. Unfortunately the move was pretty much exhausted during the US session but we did still manage to get a small trade out of it. At 9:20 am EST there was an Alba signal/breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2565 with a stop at 2582 and a target at 2556. My target was hit at 10:10 am EST and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. I was stopped out on my last lot on the very next candle. So overall it wasn't a big win and of course I would've liked to have grabbed more pips from the EU session but you can't get them all :) For all you EU session traders, I hope you were able to grab some pips from that nice move. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +18 +3 -9(spread)= +12 pips

Forex Trade- 6.21.06

2:15 pm EST- No Trades

Well it was another boring day in the market. I watched as the Euro hovered around the EU high teasing us of a breakout. At 12:00 pm EST there was an Alba breakout but because it was outside of my trading time. It's unfortunate because that trade would've won. Had it been a candle earlier, I would've entered, but I'm sticking to my rules and I know there will be other trades. Hope you all did well today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 6.19.06

2:10 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Unlike our normal, mundane Mondays, we actually had a winning trade today. Although there were no major economic reports out today, the market moved just enough for us to grab some pips. At 8:50 am EST, there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2567 with a stop at 2585 and a target at 2558. My target was hit on the next candle and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. I was stopped out on my 3rd lot at breakeven at 9:30 am EST. So it wasn't a big win but at least we started off the week on a good note. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +18 +3 (-9 spread)= +12 pips

Alba Results for 6.12.06 - 6.16.06

Well it was a pretty boring week as far as # of trades goes, but considering the choppiness of the market this past week, I think it was for the better that we stayed out of a lot of trades. We did end up with a small loss this week, but I looked back at my chart on Friday and it looks like if I had traded we would of ended up with a win and would've finished the week at about breakeven. Hopefully this week will be more exciting and maybe we'll actually pull some pips in!

Monday: No trades
Tuesday: No trades
Wednesday: -57 pips
Thursday: No trades
Friday: Did not trade

Total: -57 pips

Total for June: +40 pips

Forex Trade- 6.15.06

3:35 pm EST- No trades

Once again the market showed alot of indecision today during the US session. After the jobless claims at 8:30, the Euro spiked down only to reverse back up and spike above the EU high after the TIC data report. Luckily there were no Alba breakouts or signals which once again saved us from making any bad trades today. This week has showed a lot of indecision and it might not be until next week before we see some clear direction. I will not be trading tomorrow as I have a doctors appointment and other errands I have to run during the day. I will post the weeks results by the end of this weekend. Have a great weekend everyone! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 6.14.06

4:35 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Unfortunately, things did not go our way today. Although the market showed good volatility, it still displayed big indecision. We almost had a short breakout after the CPI report but luckily all of our criteria was not met which kept us out of the trade. The Euro then reversed and we ended up getting a long breakout. I entered on an Alba breakout at 9:20 am EST at 1.2642 with a stop at 1.2569 and a target at 1.2680. Unfortunately the movement was finished and the price pretty much stayed in place. At 1:00 pm EST the price still had not hit my target and I decided to cut my losses and closed my trade out at 1.2626. Hopefully tomorrow will be better. Hope you all did well today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -48 -9(spread)= -57 pips

Alba results for 6.05.06 - 6.09.06

Well it was a better week this week even though we only had 2 trades. Hopefully we can keep it up next week.

Monday: No trade
Tuesday: +21
Wednesday: No trade
Thursday: +76
Friday: No trade

Total: +97 pips

Total for June: +97 pips

Forex Trade- 6.05.06

4:05 pm EST- No trades

Like a typical Monday, there were no trades today. We did have the ISM Non Manufacturing report today but it didn't cause any movement in the EUR/USD. We had a slight break of the EU low but it wasn't enough to constitute a trade. Hopefully the rest of the week will be better. Cheers! ~ Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Alba results for 5.29.06 - 6.02.06

Well what a funny week it was. We didn't have any really bad trades and we didn't have any good trades. At the end of the week we ended up exactly where we started.....at breakeven! It's kind of funny but I sure would like to make some pips next week :)

Monday: Memorial Day- No trades
Tuesday: No trade
Wednesday: -21
Thursday: +3
Friday: +18

Total: +0 pips

Total for June: +0 pips

Memorial Day

There is no trading today for me as it is a US holiday. I encourage all of you, especially the American traders, to take a break from trading today as today is a very special holiday. Let us remember those who gave their lives for our country so that we could have the life of freedom that we often times take for granted. I wish you all a happy Memorial Day. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Alba Results for 5.22.06 - 5.25.06

It was a very small profit gain this week as we only had 1 trade which was a small winner. We did not trade on Friday because it was the day before the Memorial day weekend.

Monday: +12
Tuesday: No trade
Wednesday: No trade
Thursday: No trade
Friday: No trade- Day before Memorial Day

Total: +12 pips

Total for May: +274 pips

Forex Trade- 5.25.06

2:10 pm EST- No trades

Well even with the GDP and Existing Home Sales report, the Euro still showed indecision as the price could neither break the EU high nor the EU low. It will be interesting to see what will happen tomorrow seeing as Monday is a US holiday. I will watch the markets and hopefully a trade will show up. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 5.24.06

2:00 pm EST- Breakeven trade

Well it was quite a mover for the Euro today but I didn't see any entries until later in the day. During the EU session the Euro made about a 100 pip move up and then during the US sesssion it dropped right back down another 100 pips. At 10:30 am EST there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2755 with a stop at 2837 and a target at 2712. The price got as low as 2728 but didn't move far enough to hit my target. Because there was such a large move in both the EU and US session I decided that at 12pm EST it would be a good time to get out of the trade. I ended closing my trade out at breakeven. Hope you all were able to catch some of the big moves today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 5.23.06

1:15 pm EST- No trades

The Euro was pretty quiet today and it stayed within its range. Bernanke did cause some volatility but the movement still showed indecision as the Euro could not break through its high or low. Luckily for us, there were no signals or breakouts which kept us out of this range bound market. Hope you all were able to stay out. Cheers! ~Big Pippin Results: +0 pips

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 5.22.06

5:12 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Even though it wasn't a big win, we were still able to manage a few pips with the Alba system. I was kind of disappointed we didn't get more but I can't complain about positive pips. There was an Alba breakout at 10:10 am EST and I entered 3 lots long at 2802 with a stop at 2786 and a target at 2811. My target was hit on the next candle and I closed 2 lots out and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. Unfortunately that is where I got stopped out at on the very next candle. Hope you all did better than me today! Cheers, ~Big Pippin

Results: +18 +3 -9(spread)= +12 pips

Alba results for 5.15.06 - 5.19.06

Monday: -45
Tuesday: No trade
Wednesday: +92
Thursday: No trade
Friday: Out of town; no trade

Total: +47 pips

Total for May: +262 pips

Forex Trade- 5.18.06

4:00 pm EST- No Trades

Well even with Big Ben speaking today, the EUR/USD didn't move that much we did have a break of the EU high but there were no good Alba breakouts so I did not have a trade. I will also not be trading tomorrow as I have plans so this was the last trading day for me. I will post this week's results sometime tomorrow. Hope you all have a great weekend! ~Big Pippin

Result: +0 pips

Alba Results for 5.08.06 - 5.12.06

It was a good week for Alba. Although we only had 3 trades, they were all winners. Hopefully we can continue this for the rest of the month!

Monday: +24
Tuesday: +60
Wednesday: No trades
Thursday: +72
Friday: No trades

Total: +156 pips

Total for May: +215 pips

Forex Trade- 5.12.06

4:00 pm EST- No Trades

Well even with the Trade Balance and Consumer Sentiment report we didn't have enough movement in the Euro to warrent a trade. You can see from the chart that the EUR/USD stayed within its range producing no trades for us today. At least we finished the week off positive. Have a great weekend everyone! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 5.10.06

2:10 pm EST- No Trades

There was very little movement in the EUR/USD today. I'm guessing traders were waiting for the FOMC meeting. Needless to say there were no Alba signals or breakouts today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 5.08.06

2:35 pm EST- 1 Small Trade won

Considering it was a Monday with no economic reports out, I was surprised to pull in a small win today. At 9:50 there was an Alba breakout and I entered 3 lots short at 2709 with a stop at 2747 and a target at 2690. The price came close to hitting my target but didn't quite make it. By 2:00 pm, my target was still not hit so I decided to close my trade out at the close of the 2pm candle which was at 2698. On a day like this I was happy Alba was still able to give us some positive pips. Hope you all did well today. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +33 -9(spread)= +24 pips

Alba Results for 5.01.06 - 5.05.06

Well it was a pretty decent start for Alba in the month of May. Hopefully we can keep it up the rest of the month.

Monday: +80
Tuesday: No trades
Wednesday: -63
Thursday: +42
Friday: No trades

Total: +59 pips


Total for May: +59 pips

Forex Trade- 5.05.06

2:00 pm EST- No Trades

Although there was some good movement from the NFP report, I couldn't find a suitable entry. Many of you know that I don't like trading news candles and that is the reason why I didn't enter at the 8:30 candle. After the big move, the price pretty much stalled the rest of the day and I couldn't find a viable signal or breakout entry. As a result, there were no trades today. The good news is that we were able to finish the week positive. Hope you all have a great weekend. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Result: +0 pips

Forex Trade- 5.04.06

2:45 pm EST- 1 Trade Won

Well it was a good day for Alba as we had a pretty easy win. At 9:40 am EST we had an Alba signal/breakout which is usually a very good indication of a winning trade. I entered at the close of the 9:40 candle at 2643 with a stop at 2623 and a target at 2653. My target was hit at 10:00 am EST and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to breakeven. I trailed my stop to the low of the candle marked on the chart where I was eventually stopped out at 2674. It was a quick and painless trade and hopefully tomorrow's NFP report will give us more juice to have another winning trade. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +20 +31 -9(spread)= +42 pips

Forex Trade- 5.01.06

4:00 pm EST- 2 Trades won

It was quite an interesting Monday as we saw more movement than normal on these days. With the economic reports providing the EUR/USD some juice, we had 2 great trades. The first trade was an Alba breakout which happened at 8:50 am EST. I entered 3 lots long at 2668 with a stop at 2639 and a target at 2686. My target was hit at 9:10 and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to the low of that candle. I was stopped out the next candle at 2673. The 2nd trade came after the release of the better than expected numbers for Factory Orders and the ISM report. At 10:40 there was a great Alba signal and I entered 3 lots short at 2623 with a stop at 2669 and a target at 2600. My target was hit at 11:40 and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to the high of that candle. I was stopped out at noon at 2612. As far as the long term trend goes, I'm still unsure where this pair will go in the next few weeks but the intra-day movements are still giving us some decent moves. Hopefully the rest of the week will be just as good as today, but of course that usually isn't the case :) Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results:
1st trade: +36 +5 -9(spread)= +32 pips
2nd trade: +46 +11 -9(spread)= +48 pips
Total: +80 pips

Alba Results for 4/24/06 - 4/28/06

This week was a good week minus the loss we took on Monday. Fortunately we were able to pull in enough pips to stay positive for the month.

Monday: -66
Tuesday: No Trades
Wednesday: +10
Thursday: +86
Friday: +30

Total: +60 pips

Total for March: +39 pips

Forex Trade- 4/24/06

3:40 pm EST- 1 Trade Lost

Unfortunately this week is not starting off good. There was an Alba breakout (albeit an ugly one) at 10:00 am EST and I entered 3 lots short at 2344 with a stop at 2363 and a target at 2335. I was stopped out at 10:50 on all 3 lots. The way things are going this could be the first negative month for the Alba system. We'll see how the rest of the week pans out. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: -57 -9(spread)= -66 pips

Alba Results- 4/10/06 - 4/21/06

It's been a very tough 2 weeks and we're actually negative for the month at this moment. Since the Alba inception, I've never had a losing month so it will be interesting to see what will happen next week. This is one of those times when you can really see the power of good money management :)

4/10/06 - 4/12/06
Monday: No trades
Tuesday: No trades
Wednesday: -105

4/18/06 - 4/21/06
Tuesday: -33
Wednesday: -138
Thursday: +24
Friday: No trades

Total: -252 pips

Overall track record

Forex Trade- 4/21/06

4:45 pm EST- No trades

Well it was a relatively quiet day for the EUR/USD seeing as there were no economic reports today. However at around 10:30 we did get a brief spike due to some words from the Russians saying that the USD wasn't the only reserve. Price went up to the EU session high but didn't quite qualify as an Alba breakout so I stayed out. It's been a week and half and I'm hoping next week will be better. Have a great weekend everyone! ~Big Pippin

Results: +0 pips

Alba results for 4/3/06- 4/7/06

Well it really was a great week for the Alba system. I think it's just been a great week for trading in general. In this week alone we surpassed all our profits from last month. Hopefully we'll be able to add to this profit total for the rest of the month.

Monday: +54
Tuesday: +27
Wednesday: No Trades
Thursday: +86
Friday: +64

Total: +231 pips

Forex Trade- 4/03/06

2:10 pm EST- 1 Trade won

Not a bad day for a Monday. There was a good Alba breakout at 10:20 am and I entered 3 lots long at 2091 with a stop at 2069 and a target at 2103. My target was hit at 10:40 and I closed 2 lots and moved my last lot's stop to the low of that candle. I trailed my stop and was eventually stopped out at the low of the candle marked on the chart which was at 2130. We couldn't of asked for an easier trade today and it was pretty much a smooth sail for the length of the trade. Hope you all grabbed some of those pips. Cheers! ~Big Pippin

Results: +24 +39 -9(spread)= +54 pips